Earnings fallout: Social media buzz intensified following Microsoft's recent quarterly results, where shares plunged over 10% despite revenue and earnings beats. Investors fixated on Azure growth easing to 39% year-over-year and guidance signaling further moderation, alongside record $37.5 billion in AI capital spending. The reaction underscored worries over escalating costs outpacing near-term returns.
AI dependency concerns: Conversations highlighted heavy backlog ties to OpenAI and peers like Oracle facing similar pressures, with some labeling the AI sector as a deflating bubble. Bears warned of potential 30% further declines, citing stagnant periods after growth spurts. Capacity constraints and capex surges dominated the bearish dialogue.
Analyst counterpoints: Amid the pessimism, select voices viewed the dip as an overreaction, pointing to robust cloud revenue topping $50 billion and long-term AI moats. Firms like Jefferies and RBC maintained buy ratings with targets above $600. Discussions revealed a divide between short-term fears and enduring optimism.
Note: This discussion summary was generated from an AI condensation of post data.
Microsoft Insider Trading Activity
Microsoft insiders have traded $MSFT stock on the open market 12 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 12 have been sales.
Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MSFT stock by insiders over the last 6 months:
- SATYA NADELLA (Chief Executive Officer) has made 0 purchases and 6 sales selling 149,205 shares for an estimated $75,315,120.
- BRADFORD L SMITH (Vice Chair and President) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 38,500 shares for an estimated $19,967,707.
- JUDSON ALTHOFF (CEO Microsoft Commercial) sold 12,750 shares for an estimated $6,266,829
- TAKESHI NUMOTO (EVP, Chief Marketing Officer) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 7,700 shares for an estimated $3,921,858.
To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.
Microsoft Revenue
Microsoft had revenues of $77.7B in Q1 2026. This is an increase of 18.43% from the same period in the prior year.
You can track MSFT financials on Quiver Quantitative's MSFT stock page.
Microsoft Congressional Stock Trading
Members of Congress have traded $MSFT stock 33 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 14 have been purchases and 19 have been sales.
Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MSFT stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:
- REPRESENTATIVE DAVID TAYLOR has traded it 2 times. They made 2 purchases worth up to $30,000 on 01/08 and 0 sales.
- SENATOR MARKWAYNE MULLIN has traded it 2 times. They made 2 purchases worth up to $750,000 on 12/29, 11/03 and 0 sales.
- REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. has traded it 5 times. They made 4 purchases worth up to $145,000 on 11/18, 11/12, 10/09, 08/05 and 1 sale worth up to $50,000 on 12/19.
- REPRESENTATIVE JULIE JOHNSON has traded it 3 times. They made 0 purchases and 3 sales worth up to $45,000 on 12/18, 11/13, 08/14.
- SENATOR JOHN BOOZMAN purchased up to $15,000 on 12/17.
- SENATOR SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO has traded it 4 times. They made 0 purchases and 4 sales worth up to $130,000 on 12/16, 10/29, 10/22, 09/18.
- REPRESENTATIVE CLEO FIELDS has traded it 2 times. They made 2 purchases worth up to $30,000 on 12/11 and 0 sales.
- REPRESENTATIVE DWIGHT EVANS sold up to $15,000 on 11/21.
- REPRESENTATIVE RICHARD MCCORMICK has traded it 2 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $15,000 on 11/05 and 1 sale worth up to $15,000 on 09/18.
- REPRESENTATIVE LISA C. MCCLAIN has traded it 4 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $50,000 on 10/30 and 3 sales worth up to $115,000 on 10/31, 10/30, 09/11.
- REPRESENTATIVE KEVIN HERN has traded it 2 times. They made 0 purchases and 2 sales worth up to $100,000 on 10/28, 09/26.
- REPRESENTATIVE MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE purchased up to $15,000 on 10/24.
- SENATOR TOMMY TUBERVILLE sold up to $50,000 on 10/07.
- REPRESENTATIVE VAL T. HOYLE sold up to $50,000 on 09/23.
- SENATOR SHELDON WHITEHOUSE sold up to $50,000 on 09/04.
- REPRESENTATIVE THOMAS H. KEAN, JR. sold up to $15,000 on 08/25.
To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.
Microsoft Hedge Fund Activity
We have seen 2,695 institutional investors add shares of Microsoft stock to their portfolio, and 2,675 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.
Here are some of the largest recent moves:
- UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC added 109,161,832 shares (+1099.9%) to their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $56,540,370,884
- KINGSTONE CAPITAL PARTNERS TEXAS, LLC removed 90,533,781 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $46,891,971,868
- GATES FOUNDATION TRUST removed 17,000,000 shares (-64.9%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $8,805,150,000
- VANGUARD GROUP INC added 15,955,898 shares (+2.3%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $7,716,591,390
- BLACKROCK, INC. added 10,283,002 shares (+1.8%) to their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $5,326,080,885
- GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC added 7,841,111 shares (+16.8%) to their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $4,061,303,442
- SG AMERICAS SECURITIES, LLC added 6,617,245 shares (+5138.7%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $3,200,232,026
To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.
Microsoft Government Contracts
We have seen $385,444,377 of award payments to $MSFT over the last year.
Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:
- MICROSOFT AZURE STRATUS HSTXXX0000002144 93A34F: $42,604,669
- MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES (MCS) AND UNIFIED SUPPORT FOR THE U.S. NAVY / PROGRAM EXECUTIVE OFFICE DIGITA...: $37,515,594
- ARMY CYBER COMMANDS MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES AND MICROSOFT PREMIER SUPPORT: $34,490,868
- MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES (MCS) AND MICROSOFT PREMIER SUPPORT (MPS) FOR THE UNITED STATES MARINE CORPS ...: $34,135,435
- THE ENTERPRISE CLOUD MANAGEMENT AGENCY (ECMA) REQUIRES MICROSOFT AZURE CLOUD COMPUTING CAPABILITIES AT DEPA...: $31,740,635
To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard.
Microsoft Analyst Ratings
Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $MSFT in the last several months. We have seen 15 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.
Here are some recent analyst ratings:
- Piper Sandler issued a "Overweight" rating on 01/29/2026
- DA Davidson issued a "Buy" rating on 01/29/2026
- Mizuho issued a "Outperform" rating on 01/21/2026
- Citigroup issued a "Buy" rating on 01/21/2026
- TD Cowen issued a "Buy" rating on 01/20/2026
- Wedbush issued a "Outperform" rating on 12/22/2025
- Raymond James issued a "Outperform" rating on 10/30/2025
To track analyst ratings and price targets for Microsoft, check out Quiver Quantitative's $MSFT forecast page.
Microsoft Price Targets
Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $MSFT recently. We have seen 26 analysts offer price targets for $MSFT in the last 6 months, with a median target of $600.0.
Here are some recent targets:
- Tyler Radke from Citigroup set a target price of $635.0 on 01/30/2026
- Brad Reback from Stifel set a target price of $540.0 on 01/29/2026
- Hannah Rudoff from Piper Sandler set a target price of $600.0 on 01/29/2026
- Kirk Materne from Evercore ISI Group set a target price of $580.0 on 01/29/2026
- Thomas Blakey from Cantor Fitzgerald set a target price of $590.0 on 01/29/2026
- Jackson Ader from Keybanc set a target price of $600.0 on 01/29/2026
- Patrick Colville from Scotiabank set a target price of $600.0 on 01/29/2026
This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.
