Why Progressive (PGR) Stock Is Down Today

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is down 3.1% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The most likely catalyst is an analyst downgrade from JPMorgan, which moved the stock to Neutral from Overweight and set a $250 price target. The downgrade appears to be tied mainly to valuation concerns after a strong operating run, rather than a clear deterioration in Progressive’s underlying business.

Details:

JPMorgan lowered its rating on Progressive on July 14, 2026, a same-day event that lines up closely with the stock’s decline.

The call centered on valuation, suggesting the shares may have already priced in much of the company’s recent underwriting and earnings strength.

Progressive’s latest monthly release showed May net income rose 36% year over year, net premiums earned increased 10%, and the combined ratio improved to 82.1, indicating strong recent execution.

With another monthly earnings update approaching, some investors may also be taking profits or reducing risk ahead of fresh data.

Sources:

Progressive Investor Relations, Investing.com, MarketScreener

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$PGR Insider Trading Activity

$PGR insiders have traded $PGR stock on the open market 12 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 12 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $PGR stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

JEFFREY D KELLY sold 7,000 shares for an estimated $1,514,321
JOHN JO MURPHY (Claims President) sold 5,916 shares for an estimated $1,183,200
JONATHAN S. BAUER (Chief Investment Officer) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 5,371 shares for an estimated $1,094,618.
KAREN BAILO (Commercial Lines President) sold 3,517 shares for an estimated $745,604
STEVEN BROZ (Chief Information Officer) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 2,314 shares for an estimated $468,307.
ANDREW J QUIGG (Chief Strategy Officer) sold 1,649 shares for an estimated $336,973
DEVIN C JOHNSON sold 980 shares for an estimated $199,038
MARIBEL PUMAREJO (Chief Marketing Oficer) sold 738 shares for an estimated $150,137
CARL G JOYCE (Chief Accounting Officer) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 411 shares for an estimated $85,645.

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard. You can access data on insider stock transactions through the Quiver Quantitative API insider transaction endpoint.

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$PGR Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 728 institutional investors add shares of $PGR stock to their portfolio, and 831 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

CAPITAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTORS added 11,430,114 shares (+102.6%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $2,265,905,799
CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS removed 6,100,124 shares (-40.9%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $1,209,288,581
CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS added 4,650,923 shares (+48.8%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $921,998,975
DIAMANT ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC. added 4,048,351 shares (+19724.0%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $802,545,102
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP added 2,581,531 shares (+272.8%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $511,762,705
BROWN ADVISORY INC removed 1,394,809 shares (-47.4%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $276,506,936
BARROW HANLEY MEWHINNEY & STRAUSS LLC added 1,334,140 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $264,479,913

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Quiver Quantitative API 13F endpoint.

$PGR Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $PGR stock 5 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 4 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $PGR stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. has traded it 2 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $15,000 on 06/16 and 1 sale worth up to $15,000 on 02/10.
REPRESENTATIVE DAVID TAYLOR has traded it 3 times. They made 3 purchases worth up to $45,000 on 04/27, 02/10, 01/16 and 0 sales.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard. You can access data on congressional stock trades through the Quiver Quantitative API Congress trades endpoint.

$PGR Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $PGR in the last several months. We have seen 1 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 1 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

B of A Securities issued a "Buy" rating on 06/18/2026
Morgan Stanley issued a "Underweight" rating on 01/29/2026

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $PGR, check out Quiver Quantitative's $PGR forecast page.

$PGR Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $PGR recently. We have seen 11 analysts offer price targets for $PGR in the last 6 months, with a median target of $230.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Yaron Kinar from Mizuho set a target price of $243.0 on 07/09/2026
Meyer Shields from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods set a target price of $231.0 on 07/08/2026
Vikram Gandhi from HSBC set a target price of $221.0 on 07/06/2026
Brian Meredith from UBS set a target price of $230.0 on 06/30/2026
Joshua Shanker from B of A Securities set a target price of $313.0 on 06/18/2026
Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo set a target price of $219.0 on 06/18/2026
Michael Zaremski from BMO Capital set a target price of $221.0 on 04/16/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.