Mosaic slides as Q4 results miss expectations and highlight weak fertilizer demand

The Mosaic Company (MOS) is down 5.7% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: Mosaic’s pullback appears tied to its just-released fourth-quarter results, which showed a large GAAP loss and adjusted earnings well below Wall Street expectations. The report also reinforced that weak North American fertilizer demand and softer volumes weighed on profitability, keeping investors cautious about near-term fundamentals.

Details:

Mosaic reported a fourth-quarter net loss of about $519 million (GAAP) and adjusted earnings of $0.22 per share, which fell short of consensus expectations.

Quarterly revenue was about $2.97 billion, also coming in below typical analyst forecasts cited in post-earnings recaps.

In a January market update, Mosaic said North American phosphate shipments were estimated down roughly 20% year over year in Q4, with phosphate sales volumes around 1.3 million tonnes and potash sales volumes around 2.2 million tonnes.

This could also reflect investors reacting to management’s earnings-call commentary and near-term demand/volume outlook as the market re-prices 2026 expectations.

Sources:

The Mosaic Company (Investor Relations), Associated Press, Zacks

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$MOS Insider Trading Activity

$MOS insiders have traded $MOS stock on the open market 1 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 0 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MOS stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

JODY LYNNE KUZENKO purchased 685 shares for an estimated $17,488

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$MOS Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 307 institutional investors add shares of $MOS stock to their portfolio, and 481 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP removed 3,590,601 shares (-46.6%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $86,497,578
TWO SIGMA ADVISERS, LP removed 3,185,100 shares (-96.6%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $76,729,059
FMR LLC added 3,056,031 shares (+8.3%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $73,619,786
TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP removed 2,954,430 shares (-91.2%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $71,172,218
UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 2,916,530 shares (-74.5%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $70,259,207
INVESCO LTD. added 2,653,969 shares (+28.9%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $63,934,113
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC added 2,620,930 shares (+84.0%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $63,138,203

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$MOS Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $MOS stock 2 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MOS stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. purchased up to $15,000 on 01/09.
REPRESENTATIVE VAL T. HOYLE sold up to $15,000 on 09/23.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$MOS Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $MOS in the last several months. We have seen 3 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Scotiabank issued a "Sector Outperform" rating on 02/02/2026
UBS issued a "Buy" rating on 01/12/2026
Barclays issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/13/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $MOS, check out Quiver Quantitative's $MOS forecast page.

$MOS Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $MOS recently. We have seen 13 analysts offer price targets for $MOS in the last 6 months, with a median target of $32.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Ben Isaacson from Scotiabank set a target price of $36.0 on 02/02/2026
Michael Sison from Wells Fargo set a target price of $27.0 on 01/23/2026
Andrew D. Wong from RBC Capital set a target price of $29.0 on 01/20/2026
Nigel Dally from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $35.0 on 01/14/2026
Lucas Beaumont from UBS set a target price of $33.0 on 01/12/2026
Christopher Parkinson from Mizuho set a target price of $28.0 on 12/18/2025
Benjamin Theurer from Barclays set a target price of $31.0 on 12/09/2025

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.