Stifel Downgrade Sparks Debate: Social media erupted after Stifel's downgrade of Microsoft to Hold, cutting the price target to $392 amid worries over decelerating Azure growth and ballooning AI capital expenditures. The stock tumbled around 5%, hovering near $400, as traders dissected the rare bearish call on the tech giant.
AI Spending Pressures Mount: Conversations highlighted Microsoft's aggressive AI investments squeezing cash flows, even as Azure posted solid 38% growth and Copilot gained traction. Fears of prolonged payoff timelines and intensifying competition contributed to a 25% retreat from highs, amplifying sector-wide jitters.
Long-Term Bulls Emerge: Amid the pullback, optimists invoked Microsoft's history of robust recoveries from deep drawdowns, eyeing potential surges past $600. Proponents urged buying the dip at trendline support and 50% retracement levels, betting on enduring AI leadership and a vast backlog.
Note: This discussion summary was generated from an AI condensation of post data.
Microsoft Insider Trading Activity
Microsoft insiders have traded $MSFT stock on the open market 12 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 12 have been sales.
Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MSFT stock by insiders over the last 6 months:
- SATYA NADELLA (Chief Executive Officer) has made 0 purchases and 6 sales selling 149,205 shares for an estimated $75,315,120.
- BRADFORD L SMITH (Vice Chair and President) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 38,500 shares for an estimated $19,967,707.
- JUDSON ALTHOFF (CEO Microsoft Commercial) sold 12,750 shares for an estimated $6,266,829
- TAKESHI NUMOTO (EVP, Chief Marketing Officer) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 7,700 shares for an estimated $3,921,858.
To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.
Microsoft Revenue
Microsoft had revenues of $77.7B in Q1 2026. This is an increase of 18.43% from the same period in the prior year.
You can track MSFT financials on Quiver Quantitative's MSFT stock page.
Microsoft Congressional Stock Trading
Members of Congress have traded $MSFT stock 34 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 15 have been purchases and 19 have been sales.
Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MSFT stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:
- REPRESENTATIVE DAVID TAYLOR has traded it 4 times. They made 4 purchases worth up to $60,000 on 01/29, 01/16, 01/08 and 0 sales.
- SENATOR MARKWAYNE MULLIN has traded it 2 times. They made 2 purchases worth up to $750,000 on 12/29, 11/03 and 0 sales.
- REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. has traded it 4 times. They made 3 purchases worth up to $130,000 on 11/18, 11/12, 10/09 and 1 sale worth up to $50,000 on 12/19.
- REPRESENTATIVE JULIE JOHNSON has traded it 3 times. They made 0 purchases and 3 sales worth up to $45,000 on 12/18, 11/13, 08/14.
- SENATOR JOHN BOOZMAN purchased up to $15,000 on 12/17.
- SENATOR SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO has traded it 4 times. They made 0 purchases and 4 sales worth up to $130,000 on 12/16, 10/29, 10/22, 09/18.
- REPRESENTATIVE CLEO FIELDS has traded it 2 times. They made 2 purchases worth up to $30,000 on 12/11 and 0 sales.
- REPRESENTATIVE DWIGHT EVANS sold up to $15,000 on 11/21.
- REPRESENTATIVE RICHARD MCCORMICK has traded it 2 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $15,000 on 11/05 and 1 sale worth up to $15,000 on 09/18.
- REPRESENTATIVE LISA C. MCCLAIN has traded it 4 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $50,000 on 10/30 and 3 sales worth up to $115,000 on 10/31, 10/30, 09/11.
- REPRESENTATIVE KEVIN HERN has traded it 2 times. They made 0 purchases and 2 sales worth up to $100,000 on 10/28, 09/26.
- REPRESENTATIVE MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE purchased up to $15,000 on 10/24.
- SENATOR TOMMY TUBERVILLE sold up to $50,000 on 10/07.
- REPRESENTATIVE VAL T. HOYLE sold up to $50,000 on 09/23.
- SENATOR SHELDON WHITEHOUSE sold up to $50,000 on 09/04.
- REPRESENTATIVE THOMAS H. KEAN, JR. sold up to $15,000 on 08/25.
To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.
Microsoft Hedge Fund Activity
We have seen 2,718 institutional investors add shares of Microsoft stock to their portfolio, and 2,684 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.
Here are some of the largest recent moves:
- UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC added 109,161,832 shares (+1099.9%) to their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $56,540,370,884
- GATES FOUNDATION TRUST removed 17,000,000 shares (-64.9%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $8,805,150,000
- VANGUARD GROUP INC added 15,955,898 shares (+2.3%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $7,716,591,390
- BLACKROCK, INC. added 10,283,002 shares (+1.8%) to their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $5,326,080,885
- GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC added 7,841,111 shares (+16.8%) to their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $4,061,303,442
- SG AMERICAS SECURITIES, LLC added 6,617,245 shares (+5138.7%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $3,200,232,026
- FMR LLC added 5,548,052 shares (+2.7%) to their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $2,873,613,533
To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.
Microsoft Government Contracts
We have seen $380,369,544 of award payments to $MSFT over the last year.
Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:
- MICROSOFT AZURE STRATUS HSTXXX0000002144 93A34F: $42,604,669
- MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES (MCS) AND UNIFIED SUPPORT FOR THE U.S. NAVY / PROGRAM EXECUTIVE OFFICE DIGITA...: $37,515,594
- ARMY CYBER COMMANDS MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES AND MICROSOFT PREMIER SUPPORT: $34,490,868
- MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES (MCS) AND MICROSOFT PREMIER SUPPORT (MPS) FOR THE UNITED STATES MARINE CORPS ...: $31,639,788
- THE ENTERPRISE CLOUD MANAGEMENT AGENCY (ECMA) REQUIRES MICROSOFT AZURE CLOUD COMPUTING CAPABILITIES AT DEPA...: $29,924,141
To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard.
Microsoft Analyst Ratings
Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $MSFT in the last several months. We have seen 15 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.
Here are some recent analyst ratings:
- Piper Sandler issued a "Overweight" rating on 01/29/2026
- DA Davidson issued a "Buy" rating on 01/29/2026
- Mizuho issued a "Outperform" rating on 01/21/2026
- Citigroup issued a "Buy" rating on 01/21/2026
- TD Cowen issued a "Buy" rating on 01/20/2026
- Wedbush issued a "Outperform" rating on 12/22/2025
- Evercore ISI Group issued a "Outperform" rating on 10/30/2025
To track analyst ratings and price targets for Microsoft, check out Quiver Quantitative's $MSFT forecast page.
Microsoft Price Targets
Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $MSFT recently. We have seen 26 analysts offer price targets for $MSFT in the last 6 months, with a median target of $600.0.
Here are some recent targets:
- Brad Reback from Stifel set a target price of $392.0 on 02/05/2026
- Tyler Radke from Citigroup set a target price of $635.0 on 01/30/2026
- Kirk Materne from Evercore ISI Group set a target price of $580.0 on 01/29/2026
- Michael Turrin from Wells Fargo set a target price of $615.0 on 01/29/2026
- Rishi Jaluria from RBC Capital set a target price of $640.0 on 01/29/2026
- Gil Luria from DA Davidson set a target price of $650.0 on 01/29/2026
- Hannah Rudoff from Piper Sandler set a target price of $600.0 on 01/29/2026
This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.
