QUIVER QUANTITATIVE
FIRST: A LOOK INTO THE 2026 MIDTERMS
HOUSE:
→ 82% chance Democrats take control
*US Supreme Court just said it will allow California redistricting
SENATE:
→ 64% chance Republicans retain control
 House Elections Ratings Map |  Senate Elections Ratings Map |
Which corporations lead the pack in PAC donations this week?
Honeywell International
→ Made four $125k donations to Democratic and Republican committees.
→ Half of those donations are going to the Senate Majority PAC and House Majority PAC, committees to secure a Democratic majority. The two other large donations were allocated to the Congressional and Senate Leadership fund, which aims to elect a Republican majority.→ Also donated $110k to Advanced Materials PAC
Copart Inc. PAC
→ $75k donation
→ Copart Inc., the online vehicle auction services, donated to the Issa Victory Fund representing Darrell Issa (R-CA).
Valero Energy
→ Valero Energy, which has donated entirely to Republican campaigns this election cycle, reported two more donations this week totaling $135k.→ Valero donated $70k to the Johnson Leadership Fund, which is associated with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), and $65k for Thune Victory Committee — to raise money for Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD).
AT&T
→ AT&T reported a $60k donation to Thune Victory Committee as well.
Southwest Airlines and Entergy are right on the heels of the major PAC donors this week, donating $60k each to the NRCC and RNC, respectively.
WHO’S OUTPERFORMING THE MARKET?
Already this year, several politicians are outpacing the market, bringing in high returns with a diverse range of portfolios. Some have been taking risks with a concentrated portfolio, while others are making well-timed trades and investing in ETFs.
Top-performing members of Congress YTD
Nicholas Begich (R-AK)
→ YTD return: +18.81%Begich’s holdings are split between State Street SPDR, a family of ETFs, the insurance agency Aflac, and Vanguard Inc.
Rand Paul (R-KY)
→ YTD return: +18.80%
Paul’s stocks are about equally distributed between Gilead Sciences — an American pharmaceutical company — and Southwest Airlines. Paul recently introduced the Restore Prescription Drugs Discount Act, which would allow drug manufacturers to set varying prices for the same product based on the buyer.
Michael F. Bennet (D-CO)
→ YTD return: +16.12%
Almost all of Bennet’s stocks are allocated to the SSGA active trust.
Brian Babin (R-TX)
→YTD return: +14.96%
Babin maintains a portfolio with investments in aviation, defense contractors, major oil companies such as Exxon and Chevron, and the mining company Wheaton Precious Metals.
Robert E. Latta (R-OH)
→ YTD return: +13.63%
All of Latta’s investments are allocated to the Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, a financial holding company based in Ohio, providing commercial, agricultural, and consumer banking services.
Lucy McBath (D-GA)
→ YTD return: +12.52%
The majority of McBath’s stocks are allocated to Exxon Mobil.
Rick Scott (R-FL)
→ YTD return: +11.02%
Scott’s investments are mainly in Gold and SSGA trusts, with almost 60% of his portfolio in $GLDM
Craig Goldman (R-TX)
→ YTD return: +10.34%
Goldman’s stocks are distributed among Exxon Mobil, Cullen Frost Bank and Diamondback Energy.
In summary
→ The majority of congresspeople making the top 10 are Republican. Some that are seeing high returns have invested in Oil & Gas companies, which are performing better under a Republican administration.
→ Of the two Democrats high on the leaderboard, one has almost all investments allocated to the major oil company Exxon, which has received support from the Trump administration in seizing assets in Cuba.
→ When portfolios are heavily concentrated, they are more likely to experience high volatility, so it’s no surprise that many of these top performers have the bulk of their holdings in a small number of stocks.
