A trader bought $21,407 of Yes shares on Tuesday, October 20 at 10:48 AM ET in the Polymarket question asking whether Flavio Bolsonaro will win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá. The position was bought at 69% odds and would pay out about $9,424 in profit if it wins.
Agência Brasil reported on October 4 that Brazil’s electoral court set the presidential runoff for October 25, 2026, and that official Amapá election calendars are already laying out the public audit and ceremony schedule for the second round. That runoff in Amapá will determine which candidate gets the most valid votes there. Agência Brasil also reported on October 5 that Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva advanced after the first round, with Bolsonaro finishing first nationally.
Reuters reported on October 6 that Bolsonaro’s first-round result made him the favorite for the second round, while Think Policy said Lula’s path to victory would be “very difficult, but not impossible.” AP News reported on October 19 that corruption has become a major issue for voters ahead of the runoff, and that analysts say it may affect turnout and abstention as much as candidate choice. AP also reported that Bolsonaro and Lula held their first runoff debate on October 19 as the campaign entered its final stretch.
The Yes odds on this question are now 74%, down from 80% one day ago and 84% one week ago. Volume in the last 24 hours is $64,193, and lifetime volume is $163,747. In the past seven days, two other trades of $10,000 or more on this question totaled $32,195 and leaned Yes.
This question resolves to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round in Amapá, Brazil. Polymarket says the runoff is scheduled for October 25, 2026, and the market is set to resolve by the candidate with the highest finishing position after the vote is ranked, with a fallback deadline of June 30, 2027 if the result is not known definitively before then.
Sources
- Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá on Polymarket (odds and trade data)
- agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br
- agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br
- investing.com
- apnews.com
- apnews.com
- apnews.com
Trade and odds data from Polymarket. Prediction market prices reflect what traders are willing to pay and are not forecasts by Quiver Quantitative. This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information.
