Vistra gains as investors focus on reaffirmed 2026 outlook and data-center-linked nuclear contracts

Vistra Corp. (VST) is up 3.5% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The move appears tied to continued momentum from Vistra’s recent 2025 results and its reiterated 2026 financial outlook, which has kept investor focus on cash generation. Added optimism around long-duration contracted demand (including large-load/data-center related nuclear power purchase agreements) may also be supporting the shares.

Details:

Vistra posted fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results and issued 2026 guidance for ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow before growth.

Vistra has highlighted long-term contracted demand for its nuclear fleet via 20-year power purchase agreements supporting large customers’ regional operations.

Vistra announced an agreement to acquire Cogentrix Energy, expanding its natural gas generation portfolio, with closing dependent on customary conditions and regulatory approvals.

This could also reflect follow-through from recent analyst target and rating updates after Vistra’s guidance and strategic updates circulated in March.

Sources:

Vistra Investor Relations, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Investing.com

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$VST Insider Trading Activity

$VST insiders have traded $VST stock on the open market 48 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 48 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $VST stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

JAMES A BURKE (President and CEO) has made 0 purchases and 44 sales selling 662,707 shares for an estimated $133,836,604.
CARRIE LEE KIRBY (EVP and Chief Admin. Officer) sold 58,275 shares for an estimated $10,183,556
SCOTT A HUDSON (EVP & President Vistra Retail) sold 56,000 shares for an estimated $9,456,160
STEPHANIE ZAPATA MOORE (EVP and General Counsel) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 18,219 shares for an estimated $3,027,863.

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$VST Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 648 institutional investors add shares of $VST stock to their portfolio, and 791 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 4,417,022 shares (-74.5%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $712,598,159
CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS added 3,561,018 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $574,499,033
CASTLE HOOK PARTNERS LP removed 3,356,907 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $541,569,806
FMR LLC removed 2,897,557 shares (-14.6%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $467,462,870
RUBRIC CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP added 2,000,000 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $322,660,000
SEGRA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC added 1,955,518 shares (+195551.8%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $315,483,718
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC added 1,493,317 shares (+120.3%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $240,916,831

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$VST Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $VST stock 5 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 3 have been purchases and 2 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $VST stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE JULIA LETLOW purchased up to $15,000 on 02/17.
REPRESENTATIVE NANCY PELOSI purchased up to $250,000 on 01/16.
REPRESENTATIVE LISA C. MCCLAIN has traded it 3 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $15,000 on 10/30 and 2 sales worth up to $30,000 on 10/31, 10/30.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$VST Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $VST in the last several months. We have seen 7 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

UBS issued a "Buy" rating on 01/12/2026
JP Morgan issued a "Overweight" rating on 12/16/2025
Keybanc issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/25/2025
Evercore ISI Group issued a "Outperform" rating on 11/07/2025
BMO Capital issued a "Outperform" rating on 11/07/2025
Wells Fargo issued a "Overweight" rating on 10/28/2025
Morgan Stanley issued a "Overweight" rating on 09/25/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $VST, check out Quiver Quantitative's $VST forecast page.

$VST Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $VST recently. We have seen 11 analysts offer price targets for $VST in the last 6 months, with a median target of $233.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Shahriar Pourreza from Wells Fargo set a target price of $234.0 on 02/27/2026
Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Jefferies set a target price of $203.0 on 02/10/2026
William Appicelli from UBS set a target price of $233.0 on 01/12/2026
Julien Dumoulin-Smith from B of A Securities set a target price of $218.0 on 01/12/2026
Andrew Weisel from Scotiabank set a target price of $293.0 on 01/12/2026
James Thalacker from BMO Capital set a target price of $244.0 on 01/12/2026
Jeremy Tonet from JP Morgan set a target price of $233.0 on 12/16/2025

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.