Toll Brothers jumps as Q2 results top expectations and full-year guidance is raised

Toll Brothers (TOL) is up 9.8% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The move appears tied to the company’s fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report, which highlighted better-than-expected profitability versus guidance, higher year-over-year orders, and raised full-year targets across key homebuilding metrics. A stepped-up capital return message (share repurchases and a higher dividend) likely added to investor enthusiasm.

Details:

The company reported fiscal Q2 (ended April 30, 2026) diluted EPS of $2.72 on home sales revenue of about $2.51 billion, alongside commentary that results exceeded the midpoint of its prior-quarter guidance.

Net signed contract value rose to $2.81 billion from $2.60 billion a year earlier, with orders up 7% in units and 8% in dollars year-over-year.

Management raised full-year fiscal 2026 guidance, including deliveries of 10,400–10,700 units and an average delivered price per home of $985,000–$1,000,000.

During the quarter, the company repurchased roughly 1.2 million shares for about $175 million and previously announced a dividend increase to $0.26 per share.

Sources:

Toll Brothers Investor Relations, SEC EDGAR, GlobeNewswire

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$TOL Insider Trading Activity

$TOL insiders have traded $TOL stock on the open market 6 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 6 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $TOL stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

DOUGLAS C. JR. YEARLEY (Chief Executive Officer) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 72,130 shares for an estimated $11,536,916.
PAUL E SHAPIRO sold 3,965 shares for an estimated $581,580
JOHN A MCLEAN sold 2,313 shares for an estimated $354,888
STEPHEN F. EAST sold 1,000 shares for an estimated $139,700

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard. You can access data on insider stock transactions through the Quiver Quantitative API insider transaction endpoint.

$TOL Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 389 institutional investors add shares of $TOL stock to their portfolio, and 364 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ removed 2,911,070 shares (-88.1%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $397,273,722
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC removed 434,499 shares (-19.7%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $59,296,078
PACER ADVISORS, INC. added 419,033 shares (+3700.7%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $57,185,433
VOLORIDGE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC removed 369,988 shares (-54.5%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $50,492,262
JENNISON ASSOCIATES LLC added 327,953 shares (+30.1%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $44,755,745
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO removed 323,756 shares (-56.2%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $43,778,286
QUANTINNO CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP added 305,097 shares (+158.4%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $41,636,587

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Quiver Quantitative API 13F endpoint.

$TOL Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $TOL in the last several months. We have seen 2 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

RBC Capital issued a "Outperform" rating on 12/10/2025
UBS issued a "Buy" rating on 12/10/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $TOL, check out Quiver Quantitative's $TOL forecast page.

$TOL Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $TOL recently. We have seen 12 analysts offer price targets for $TOL in the last 6 months, with a median target of $170.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Rohit Seth from Truist Securities set a target price of $170.0 on 04/16/2026
Stephen Kim from Evercore ISI Group set a target price of $176.0 on 04/13/2026
Matthew Bouley from Barclays set a target price of $115.0 on 04/08/2026
Anthony Pettinari from Citigroup set a target price of $162.0 on 02/26/2026
Jade Rahmani from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods set a target price of $170.0 on 02/25/2026
Michael Rehaut from JP Morgan set a target price of $143.0 on 02/23/2026
Sam Reid from Wells Fargo set a target price of $185.0 on 02/19/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.