Toast jumps as MidCap 400 addition appears to spark buying

Toast (TOST) is up 7.6% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The most likely catalyst is Toast’s pending addition to the S&P MidCap 400, which often drives buying from index funds and other investors that track the benchmark. The move also appears to be getting support from Toast’s still-recent first-quarter results, which showed solid location growth, stronger profitability, and a higher full-year outlook.

Details:

Toast was selected to join the S&P MidCap 400 effective before the open on July 1, replacing TopBuild after that company’s pending acquisition.

In first-quarter 2026, Toast said annualized recurring run-rate rose 26% to $2.2 billion and the company added about 7,000 net new locations.

Toast raised its full-year 2026 outlook for non-GAAP subscription and fintech gross profit to $2.29 billion to $2.32 billion, and lifted adjusted EBITDA guidance to $790 million to $810 million.

Toast also said it had repurchased 14 million shares for $378 million year-to-date through May 6, adding another shareholder-friendly signal alongside the growth story.

Sources:

S&P Global, Toast

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$TOST Insider Trading Activity

$TOST insiders have traded $TOST stock on the open market 19 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 19 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $TOST stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

BRIAN R ELWORTHY (General Counsel) has made 0 purchases and 5 sales selling 115,615 shares for an estimated $3,025,189.
JONATHAN VASSIL (Chief Revenue Officer) has made 0 purchases and 4 sales selling 79,069 shares for an estimated $2,758,021.
AMAN NARANG (CEO) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 23,702 shares for an estimated $697,896.
ELENA GOMEZ (President, CFO) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 17,038 shares for an estimated $506,792.
STEPHEN FREDETTE (President) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 13,215 shares for an estimated $390,321.
SUSAN CHAPMAN-HUGHES sold 8,500 shares for an estimated $246,245

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard. You can access data on insider stock transactions through the Quiver Quantitative API insider transaction endpoint.

$TOST Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 418 institutional investors add shares of $TOST stock to their portfolio, and 417 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS removed 14,788,186 shares (-32.6%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $392,034,810
JENNISON ASSOCIATES LLC removed 11,931,453 shares (-78.7%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $316,302,819
ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P. added 8,842,108 shares (+94.8%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $234,404,283
T. ROWE PRICE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, INC. removed 6,068,369 shares (-56.8%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $215,487,783
VALUEACT HOLDINGS, L.P. added 4,880,161 shares (+60.9%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $129,373,068
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC added 3,945,477 shares (+14554.7%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $104,594,595
MERITAGE GROUP LP added 3,410,223 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $90,405,011

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Quiver Quantitative API 13F endpoint.

$TOST Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $TOST in the last several months. We have seen 1 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Needham issued a "Buy" rating on 02/13/2026

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $TOST, check out Quiver Quantitative's $TOST forecast page.

$TOST Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $TOST recently. We have seen 13 analysts offer price targets for $TOST in the last 6 months, with a median target of $35.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Billy Fitzsimmons from Piper Sandler set a target price of $32.0 on 06/11/2026
Dominic Ball from Rothschild & Co set a target price of $35.0 on 05/12/2026
Matthew Coad from Truist Securities set a target price of $30.0 on 05/12/2026
Dan Dolev from Mizuho set a target price of $38.0 on 05/12/2026
Peter Heckmann from DA Davidson set a target price of $28.0 on 05/12/2026
Bryan Keane from Citigroup set a target price of $36.0 on 05/08/2026
Timothy Chiodo from UBS set a target price of $34.0 on 05/08/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.