Target jumps as Q4 earnings beat and 2026 outlook signals a return to growth

Target Corporation (TGT) is up 3.6% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The move higher appears tied to Target’s fiscal Q4 earnings beating expectations and management’s full-year fiscal 2026 outlook pointing to improving momentum after a prolonged stretch of uneven discretionary demand. Investors also seemed encouraged by early signs of a rebound in traffic and the company’s turnaround messaging under its relatively new CEO.

Details:

Target reported fiscal Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.44, topping analyst expectations, even as revenue declined year over year to about $30.45 billion and comparable sales fell 2.5%.

For fiscal 2026, Target guided to EPS of $7.50 to $8.50 and indicated it expects sales to improve, including a roughly 2% full-year net sales increase.

Management commentary highlighted improving demand signals late in the quarter (traffic/transactions improving into December and January), which may have helped investors look past near-term pressures.

Target’s investor webcast/event on March 3, 2026 put fresh focus on strategy execution and operational fixes, which can act as a sentiment catalyst on earnings day.

Sources:

Target Investor Relations, Associated Press, Barron’s, Business Insider

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$TGT Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 720 institutional investors add shares of $TGT stock to their portfolio, and 1,051 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 11,631,708 shares (-75.5%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $1,136,999,457
KINGSTONE CAPITAL PARTNERS TEXAS, LLC removed 6,039,933 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $541,781,990
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC added 3,143,307 shares (+119.5%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $307,258,259
TOMS CAPITAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LP added 2,635,000 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $257,571,250
FMR LLC added 2,406,077 shares (+16.7%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $235,194,026
PACER ADVISORS, INC. removed 2,402,839 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $234,877,512
DIAMOND HILL CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC removed 2,268,921 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $203,522,213

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$TGT Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $TGT stock 1 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $TGT stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE VAL T. HOYLE sold up to $15,000 on 09/23.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$TGT Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $TGT in the last several months. We have seen 3 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 2 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Argus Research issued a "Buy" rating on 12/01/2025
B of A Securities issued a "Underperform" rating on 11/20/2025
RBC Capital issued a "Outperform" rating on 11/20/2025
DA Davidson issued a "Buy" rating on 11/20/2025
Bernstein issued a "Underperform" rating on 11/20/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $TGT, check out Quiver Quantitative's $TGT forecast page.

$TGT Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $TGT recently. We have seen 19 analysts offer price targets for $TGT in the last 6 months, with a median target of $100.0.

Here are some recent targets:

David Belinger from Mizuho set a target price of $100.0 on 03/02/2026
Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo set a target price of $130.0 on 02/27/2026
Christopher Horvers from JP Morgan set a target price of $115.0 on 02/26/2026
Zhihan Ma from Bernstein set a target price of $91.0 on 02/26/2026
Peter Keith from Piper Sandler set a target price of $102.0 on 02/23/2026
Greg Melich from Evercore ISI Group set a target price of $105.0 on 02/17/2026
John Heinbockel from Guggenheim set a target price of $125.0 on 02/17/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.