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Scott Bessent Emerges on Shortlist to Succeed Powell as Fed Chair

Quiver Editor

Scott Bessent, the head of the National Economic Council, has emerged as a surprising contender to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, according to a Bloomberg report that was swiftly denied by the White House. The report places Bessent alongside former Fed governor Kevin Warsh on President Trump’s shortlist, signaling an administration preference for a candidate deeply versed in Treasury and trade policy.

Bessent’s elevated profile reflects his central role in crafting the administration’s sweeping trade overhaul, tax reforms, and regulatory initiatives. His potential nomination underscores a shift toward a Fed leadership with strong ties to fiscal policy, contrasting with Powell’s traditionally data-driven, independent approach.

Market Overview:
  • Bloomberg names Bessent among potential Powell successors; White House calls report false
  • Kevin Warsh, former Fed governor, also under consideration
  • Formal interviews for the Fed chair position have not yet begun, per Bloomberg sources
Key Points:
  • Bessent leads the National Economic Council and oversees trade-policy negotiations
  • President Trump has pledged to name Powell’s successor “very soon”
  • White House statement dismissed Bloomberg’s report as inaccurate
Looking Ahead:
  • Official announcement expected imminently, triggering Senate confirmation process
  • Successor choice will influence Fed’s stance on rate cuts, inflation, and economic recovery
  • Treasury background may signal closer coordination between fiscal and monetary policy
Bull Case:
  • Scott Bessent’s emergence as a top contender signals a Fed leadership with strong expertise in Treasury, trade, and fiscal policy, potentially enabling closer coordination between the central bank and administration on economic strategy.
  • Bessent’s central role in crafting sweeping trade overhauls, tax reforms, and regulatory initiatives demonstrates his ability to navigate complex policy landscapes, which could bring fresh perspective and decisive action to the Fed.
  • Investors may view a Fed chair with Treasury experience as beneficial for market liquidity and economic recovery, especially if it leads to more predictable and coordinated policy responses.
  • President Trump’s pledge to name a successor “very soon” reduces uncertainty and could quickly align monetary policy with the administration’s broader economic agenda.
  • A Fed leadership with strong fiscal policy ties could facilitate more effective responses to economic shocks, supporting growth and stability.
  • Senate confirmation hearings will provide transparency and a platform to clarify the nominee’s views on inflation, employment, and financial stability, potentially boosting market confidence.
Bear Case:
  • The White House’s swift denial of Bloomberg’s report on Bessent’s candidacy introduces confusion and uncertainty regarding the true shortlist and timing of the announcement.
  • A Fed chair with close ties to fiscal policy could risk undermining the central bank’s independence, raising concerns about political influence over monetary decisions.
  • Investors may worry that a leadership change could shift the Fed’s traditionally data-driven, independent approach toward a more politicized stance, potentially destabilizing markets.
  • If formal interviews have not yet begun, the selection process could be delayed, prolonging uncertainty for investors and businesses.
  • Senate confirmation hearings may expose disagreements or lack of consensus on the nominee’s policy priorities, increasing volatility in interest-rate expectations.
  • Any perception of reduced Fed independence could undermine confidence in the central bank’s ability to maintain price stability and manage inflation, particularly in a volatile economic environment.

Investors will closely monitor the administration’s announcement for implications on interest-rate expectations and market liquidity, as a Fed chair with Treasury experience could recalibrate the central bank’s future policy path.

The selection process will culminate in Senate hearings, where candidates’ views on inflation, employment, and financial stability will be scrutinized. The eventual appointee’s stance on balancing price stability with growth objectives will shape the Fed’s strategy through the next economic cycle.

About the Author

David Love is an editor at Quiver Quantitative, with a focus on global markets and breaking news. Prior to joining Quiver, David was the CEO of Winter Haven Capital.

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