A trader just put $29,588 into contracts betting against "$4,490 or above" in a "Ethereum price at Oct 3, 2025 at 2pm EDT?" market.
This is one of the largest trades we have seen on a prediction market over the last day.
Market Context
This contract comes from Kalshi’s prediction markets, which allow traders to bet on the outcome of specific events. From our prediction market tracking, the trade was made on 10/03 at 01:05 PM EST when the market was giving a 61% chance of their bet paying off.
There have been 207,610 contracts traded in this market in the last day.
Market Rules
Here are some of the rules that were given for the market:
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 2 PM EDT is above 4489.99 at 2 PM EDT on Oct 3, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices.
You can find up-to-date information on Kalshi.
Why this matters
Prediction markets for cryptocurrency assets have emerged as significant platforms for gauging market sentiment and expectations regarding future price movements. These markets provide real-time insight into collective investor beliefs, offering a dynamic measure of risk and uncertainty that traditional financial instruments may not fully capture.
Ethereum's price prediction markets specifically matter due to the asset's central role in the blockchain ecosystem and its influence on decentralized finance and smart contract applications. Such markets enable more transparent and liquid price discovery mechanisms, which can inform portfolio management, hedging strategies, and broader financial decision-making in the rapidly evolving crypto landscape.
