A trader just put $30,400 into contracts betting on "24,700 or above" in a "Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 24699.99 at the end of Oct 3, 2025 at 4pm EDT?" market.
This is one of the largest trades we have seen on a prediction market over the last day.
Market Context
This contract comes from Kalshi’s prediction markets, which allow traders to bet on the outcome of specific events. From our prediction market tracking, the trade was made on 10/03 at 02:01 PM EST when the market was giving a 76% chance of their bet paying off.
There have been 59,598 contracts traded in this market in the last day.
Market Rules
Here are some of the rules that were given for the market:
If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on October 03, 2025 is above 24699.99, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close on October 03, 2025. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after October 03, 2025.
Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.
You can find up-to-date information on Kalshi.
Why this matters
Prediction markets provide a unique mechanism for aggregating diverse opinions and information about future events, enhancing transparency and market efficiency. They distill collective expectations into quantifiable probabilities, offering valuable insights for investors, policymakers, and researchers alike.
Markets focused on major financial indices, like the Nasdaq-100, hold particular significance due to their widespread economic impact and role as benchmarks in the financial industry. These markets enable participants to hedge risks or express views on economic trends, thereby contributing to more informed decision-making in the broader economy.
