Progressive shares fall as August underwriting metrics weaken

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is down 3.3% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The most likely catalyst is investor reaction to Progressive’s August results, which showed slower profit performance and weaker underwriting margins versus a strong year-ago comparison. This could also be because the market is reassessing how much room the stock has for further gains after a recent analyst price-target cut and signs of softer momentum in core insurance profitability.

Details:

Progressive disclosed August net income of $951 million, down 22% from $1.22 billion a year earlier, even as net premiums written rose 6%.

The company’s August combined ratio worsened to 89.3 from 83.1, a notable deterioration in a key property-and-casualty profitability measure.

Policies in force still increased 7% year over year to 40.5 million, suggesting the issue was not demand but margin pressure and claims-related performance.

Mizuho maintained a Neutral rating on the stock on September 16 while trimming its price target to $230 from $236, adding to a more cautious near-term tone around the shares.

Sources:

SEC, Progressive Investor Relations, GuruFocus

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$PGR Insider Trading Activity

$PGR insiders have traded $PGR stock on the open market 14 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 14 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $PGR stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

SUSAN PATRICIA GRIFFITH (President and CEO) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 74,676 shares for an estimated $16,137,856.
JOHN JO MURPHY (Claims President) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 14,040 shares for an estimated $2,911,174.
KAREN BAILO (Commercial Lines President) sold 8,452 shares for an estimated $1,797,824
LORI A NIEDERST (Chief Personal Lines Officer) sold 7,339 shares for an estimated $1,535,979
JEFFREY D KELLY sold 7,000 shares for an estimated $1,514,321
STEVEN BROZ (Chief Information Officer) has made 0 purchases and 4 sales selling 4,695 shares for an estimated $974,248.
ANDREW J QUIGG (VP and Chief Financial Officer) sold 3,499 shares for an estimated $769,780
JONATHAN S. BAUER (Chief Investment Officer) sold 2,242 shares for an estimated $476,895
DEVIN C JOHNSON sold 980 shares for an estimated $199,038

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard. You can access data on insider stock transactions through the Quiver Quantitative API insider transaction endpoint.

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$PGR Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 881 institutional investors add shares of $PGR stock to their portfolio, and 979 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO added 10,295,927 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $2,249,145,253
SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P. added 4,783,863 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $1,045,034,872
MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/ removed 4,435,885 shares (-36.7%) from their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $969,019,078
BLACKROCK, INC. removed 4,274,758 shares (-8.2%) from their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $933,820,885
DIAMANT ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC. removed 4,048,727 shares (-99.5%) from their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $884,444,413
CAPITAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTORS added 3,974,965 shares (+17.6%) to their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $868,331,104
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP added 3,428,801 shares (+128.7%) to their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $749,021,578

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Quiver Quantitative API 13F endpoint.

$PGR Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $PGR stock 4 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 2 have been purchases and 2 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $PGR stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. has traded it 2 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $15,000 on 06/16 and 1 sale worth up to $15,000 on 07/17.
REPRESENTATIVE DAVID TAYLOR purchased up to $15,000 on 04/27.
SENATOR ALAN ARMSTRONG sold up to $50,000 on 03/27.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard. You can access data on congressional stock trades through the Quiver Quantitative API Congress trades endpoint.

$PGR Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $PGR in the last several months. We have seen 1 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

B of A Securities issued a "Buy" rating on 06/18/2026

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $PGR, check out Quiver Quantitative's $PGR forecast page.

$PGR Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $PGR recently. We have seen 8 analysts offer price targets for $PGR in the last 6 months, with a median target of $225.5.

Here are some recent targets:

Yaron Kinar from Mizuho set a target price of $243.0 on 07/09/2026
Meyer Shields from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods set a target price of $231.0 on 07/08/2026
Vikram Gandhi from HSBC set a target price of $221.0 on 07/06/2026
Brian Meredith from UBS set a target price of $230.0 on 06/30/2026
Joshua Shanker from B of A Securities set a target price of $313.0 on 06/18/2026
Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo set a target price of $219.0 on 06/18/2026
Michael Zaremski from BMO Capital set a target price of $221.0 on 04/16/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.