Novavax jumps as Q4 profit, higher revenue, and partnership milestones highlight a pivot to licensing

Novavax (NVAX) is up 17.4% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The move appears tied to Novavax’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 update, which showed a return to quarterly profitability, higher revenue, and continued momentum in its strategy to monetize its Matrix-M adjuvant through partner deals. Investors may also be responding to new 2026 financial targets and liquidity updates that suggest a longer runway.

Details:

Novavax reported Q4 2025 total revenue of $147 million (up from $88 million a year earlier) and Q4 net income of $18 million, compared with a net loss in the prior-year quarter.

The company highlighted progress monetizing Matrix-M, including a Pfizer license with a $30 million upfront payment (received in Q1 2026) and potential additional development and sales milestones plus royalties, with Novavax supplying the adjuvant.

Novavax cited continued execution with Sanofi, including $225 million in milestones earned in full-year 2025 and ongoing work tied to influenza-COVID-19 combination efforts.

The company also disclosed a February 2026 credit facility totaling $330 million (including an initial $50 million draw), which could reduce near-term financing pressure.

Sources:

Novavax Investor Relations, Pharmaceutical Technology, Investing.com

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$NVAX Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 103 institutional investors add shares of $NVAX stock to their portfolio, and 160 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ added 5,189,591 shares (+167.3%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $34,874,051
COATUE MANAGEMENT LLC removed 3,836,986 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $25,784,545
SHAH CAPITAL MANAGEMENT added 2,747,000 shares (+23.3%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $18,459,840
MORGAN STANLEY added 2,641,540 shares (+245.4%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $17,751,148
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC added 2,342,804 shares (+110.1%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $15,743,642
STATE STREET CORP added 2,326,927 shares (+32.3%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $15,636,949
D. E. SHAW & CO., INC. added 1,718,719 shares (+40.2%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $11,549,791

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$NVAX Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $NVAX in the last several months. We have seen 3 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 1 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

BTIG issued a "Buy" rating on 01/20/2026
JP Morgan issued a "Underweight" rating on 11/18/2025
B. Riley Securities issued a "Buy" rating on 11/10/2025
Cantor Fitzgerald issued a "Overweight" rating on 10/24/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $NVAX, check out Quiver Quantitative's $NVAX forecast page.

$NVAX Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $NVAX recently. We have seen 6 analysts offer price targets for $NVAX in the last 6 months, with a median target of $13.5.

Here are some recent targets:

Thomas Shrader from BTIG set a target price of $19.0 on 01/20/2026
Anupam Rama from JP Morgan set a target price of $6.0 on 11/18/2025
Mayank Mamtani from B. Riley Securities set a target price of $16.0 on 11/10/2025
Brendan Smith from TD Cowen set a target price of $7.0 on 11/04/2025
Pete Stavropoulos from Cantor Fitzgerald set a target price of $18.0 on 10/24/2025
Sean Lee from HC Wainwright & Co. set a target price of $11.0 on 10/23/2025

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.