AI Investment Concerns: Recent chatter on social media has focused on Microsoft’s massive capital expenditure on AI and cloud infrastructure, with some expressing doubts about the short-term returns. Many are pointing to the reported $80 billion capex for FY25 as a potential strain, despite the company's strong growth in Azure and cloud services. This has sparked a debate over whether the aggressive push into AI will pay off soon enough to justify the costs.
Stock Price Pullback: Discussions also highlight a recent 5% slide in Microsoft’s stock price over two weeks, with some attributing it to broader market jitters about AI regulation and competition from Google. A few voices remain optimistic, citing Wall Street targets as high as $650 due to Azure expansion and AI potential. The tension between near-term challenges and long-term growth keeps the conversation lively.
Note: This discussion summary was generated from an AI condensation of post data.
Microsoft Insider Trading Activity
Microsoft insiders have traded $MSFT stock on the open market 12 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 12 have been sales.
Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MSFT stock by insiders over the last 6 months:
- SATYA NADELLA (Chief Executive Officer) has made 0 purchases and 6 sales selling 149,205 shares for an estimated $75,315,120.
- BRADFORD L SMITH (Vice Chair and President) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 38,500 shares for an estimated $19,967,707.
- JUDSON ALTHOFF (CEO Microsoft Commercial) sold 12,750 shares for an estimated $6,266,829
- TAKESHI NUMOTO (EVP, Chief Marketing Officer) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 7,700 shares for an estimated $3,921,858.
To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.
Microsoft Revenue
Microsoft had revenues of $77.7B in Q1 2026. This is an increase of 18.43% from the same period in the prior year.
You can track MSFT financials on Quiver Quantitative's MSFT stock page.
Microsoft Congressional Stock Trading
Members of Congress have traded $MSFT stock 37 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 18 have been purchases and 19 have been sales.
Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MSFT stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:
- REPRESENTATIVE JULIE JOHNSON has traded it 3 times. They made 0 purchases and 3 sales worth up to $45,000 on 11/13, 08/14, 07/29.
- REPRESENTATIVE RICHARD MCCORMICK has traded it 2 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $15,000 on 11/05 and 1 sale worth up to $15,000 on 09/18.
- SENATOR MARKWAYNE MULLIN purchased up to $500,000 on 11/03.
- REPRESENTATIVE LISA C. MCCLAIN has traded it 5 times. They made 2 purchases worth up to $65,000 on 10/30, 07/16 and 3 sales worth up to $115,000 on 10/31, 10/30, 09/11.
- SENATOR SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO has traded it 5 times. They made 0 purchases and 5 sales worth up to $145,000 on 10/29, 10/22, 09/18, 07/18, 06/18.
- REPRESENTATIVE KEVIN HERN has traded it 2 times. They made 0 purchases and 2 sales worth up to $100,000 on 10/28, 09/26.
- REPRESENTATIVE MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE purchased up to $15,000 on 10/24.
- REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. has traded it 2 times. They made 2 purchases worth up to $30,000 on 10/09, 08/05 and 0 sales.
- SENATOR TOMMY TUBERVILLE sold up to $50,000 on 10/07.
- REPRESENTATIVE VAL T. HOYLE sold up to $50,000 on 09/23.
- SENATOR SHELDON WHITEHOUSE sold up to $50,000 on 09/04.
- REPRESENTATIVE THOMAS H. KEAN, JR. sold up to $15,000 on 08/25.
- REPRESENTATIVE CLEO FIELDS has traded it 10 times. They made 10 purchases worth up to $1,500,000 on 08/01, 07/29, 07/28, 07/16, 06/25 and 0 sales.
- SENATOR ANGUS S. KING JR. purchased up to $15,000 on 07/21.
- REPRESENTATIVE RITCHIE TORRES sold up to $15,000 on 07/11.
To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.
Microsoft Hedge Fund Activity
We have seen 2,754 institutional investors add shares of Microsoft stock to their portfolio, and 2,723 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.
Here are some of the largest recent moves:
- UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC added 109,161,832 shares (+1099.9%) to their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $56,540,370,884
- KINGSTONE CAPITAL PARTNERS TEXAS, LLC removed 90,533,781 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $46,891,971,868
- GATES FOUNDATION TRUST removed 17,000,000 shares (-64.9%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $8,805,150,000
- BLACKROCK, INC. added 10,283,002 shares (+1.8%) to their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $5,326,080,885
- GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC added 7,841,111 shares (+16.8%) to their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $4,061,303,442
- FMR LLC added 5,548,052 shares (+2.7%) to their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $2,873,613,533
- BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT HOLDING S.A. removed 5,003,543 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $2,591,585,096
To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.
Microsoft Government Contracts
We have seen $321,299,050 of award payments to $MSFT over the last year.
Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:
- MICROSOFT AZURE STRATUS HSTXXX0000002144 93A34F: $36,604,669
- MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES (MCS) AND UNIFIED SUPPORT FOR THE U.S. NAVY / PROGRAM EXECUTIVE OFFICE DIGITA...: $34,962,543
- ARMY CYBER COMMANDS MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES AND MICROSOFT PREMIER SUPPORT: $34,490,868
- THE ENTERPRISE CLOUD MANAGEMENT AGENCY (ECMA) REQUIRES MICROSOFT AZURE CLOUD COMPUTING CAPABILITIES AT DEPA...: $27,614,324
- MICROSOFT ENTERPRISE TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS SERVICES (METSS) MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES (MCS) AND MICROSOFT...: $20,137,899
To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard.
Microsoft Analyst Ratings
Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $MSFT in the last several months. We have seen 25 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.
Here are some recent analyst ratings:
- JP Morgan issued a "Overweight" rating on 10/30/2025
- Evercore ISI Group issued a "Outperform" rating on 10/30/2025
- Wells Fargo issued a "Overweight" rating on 10/30/2025
- Piper Sandler issued a "Overweight" rating on 10/30/2025
- Citigroup issued a "Buy" rating on 10/30/2025
- Bernstein issued a "Outperform" rating on 10/30/2025
- Raymond James issued a "Outperform" rating on 10/30/2025
To track analyst ratings and price targets for Microsoft, check out Quiver Quantitative's $MSFT forecast page.
Microsoft Price Targets
Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $MSFT recently. We have seen 29 analysts offer price targets for $MSFT in the last 6 months, with a median target of $639.0.
Here are some recent targets:
- Gil Luria from DA Davidson set a target price of $650.0 on 12/04/2025
- Alex Haissl from Rothschild & Co set a target price of $500.0 on 11/18/2025
- William Power from Baird set a target price of $600.0 on 11/14/2025
- Hannah Rudoff from Piper Sandler set a target price of $650.0 on 10/30/2025
- Kirk Materne from Evercore ISI Group set a target price of $640.0 on 10/30/2025
- Mark Moerdler from Bernstein set a target price of $645.0 on 10/30/2025
- Mark Murphy from JP Morgan set a target price of $575.0 on 10/30/2025
This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.
