Marathon Petroleum slides as oil prices retreat and investors refocus on refinery downtime

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is down 4.3% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The pullback appears tied to a broader cooling in oil prices as markets weighed the possibility of a nearer-term de-escalation in the Iran conflict, which can trigger fast rotations across the energy complex. At the company level, sentiment may also be pressured by expectations for reduced near-term refining throughput from planned maintenance and recent operational interruptions, even if longer-term cash-return plans remain intact.

Details:

Oil prices eased back toward the $100-per-barrel area after comments suggesting U.S. military action involving Iran could wind down within weeks, contributing to a risk-on rally in equities but uneven performance across energy names.

Marathon Petroleum has been preparing for a major planned turnaround at its Robinson, Illinois refinery, including shutting the main crude unit for an extended overhaul, which can temporarily reduce output and earnings power.

Earlier in 2026, Marathon Petroleum halted operations at its Catlettsburg, Kentucky refinery following an unexpected power disruption, highlighting the operational volatility that can affect near-term results.

In its most recent annual results update, the company emphasized ongoing capital-return capacity supported by its integrated model and midstream cash flows, but near-term margin/throughput headlines can still drive daily moves.

Sources:

Associated Press, Axios, Marathon Petroleum Investor Relations, QC Intel, Hydrocarbon Processing

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$MPC Insider Trading Activity

$MPC insiders have traded $MPC stock on the open market 6 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 6 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MPC stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

MICHAEL A II HENSCHEN (Ex VP, Refining) sold 5,289 shares for an estimated $1,070,070
RICKY D. HESSLING (Chief Commercial Officer) has made 0 purchases and 5 sales selling 4,473 shares for an estimated $1,015,422.

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$MPC Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 677 institutional investors add shares of $MPC stock to their portfolio, and 725 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 4,399,824 shares (-77.3%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $715,543,377
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP removed 2,164,683 shares (-23.1%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $352,042,396
CAPITAL WEALTH PLANNING, LLC added 1,495,097 shares (+49392.0%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $243,147,625
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC removed 1,339,626 shares (-90.3%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $217,863,376
QUBE RESEARCH & TECHNOLOGIES LTD added 1,110,161 shares (+237.6%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $180,545,483
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ removed 1,109,013 shares (-35.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $180,358,784
ALYESKA INVESTMENT GROUP, L.P. removed 785,433 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $127,734,968

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$MPC Government Contracts

We have seen $395,999,201 of award payments to $MPC over the last year.

Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:

8511343326!DISTILLATE,NAVAL: $21,817,614
8511470123!DISTILLATE,NAVAL: $14,530,587
8511695173!DISTILLATE,NAVAL: $14,326,557
8511665280!TURBINE FUEL,AVIATION: $11,084,018
8511665225!TURBINE FUEL,AVIATION: $10,988,880

To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard.

$MPC Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $MPC stock 3 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 3 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MPC stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE DAVID TAYLOR has traded it 3 times. They made 0 purchases and 3 sales worth up to $45,000 on 03/11, 02/26.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$MPC Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $MPC in the last several months. We have seen 4 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Barclays issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/17/2025
Wells Fargo issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/05/2025
Raymond James issued a "Outperform" rating on 10/17/2025
Scotiabank issued a "Sector Outperform" rating on 10/09/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $MPC, check out Quiver Quantitative's $MPC forecast page.

$MPC Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $MPC recently. We have seen 9 analysts offer price targets for $MPC in the last 6 months, with a median target of $224.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Sam Margolin from Wells Fargo set a target price of $331.0 on 03/31/2026
Justin Jenkins from Raymond James set a target price of $270.0 on 03/25/2026
Nitin Kumar from Mizuho set a target price of $224.0 on 03/17/2026
Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs set a target price of $239.0 on 03/12/2026
Phillip Jungwirth from BMO Capital set a target price of $225.0 on 02/09/2026
Vikram Bagri from Citigroup set a target price of $210.0 on 02/09/2026
Theresa Chen from Barclays set a target price of $194.0 on 01/13/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.