Lemonade slides 11.9% as investors digest post-earnings outlook and analyst caution

Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) is down 11.9% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The move appears tied to a post-earnings reset in expectations: while Lemonade’s Q4 results showed strong growth and improving underwriting, management’s 2026 outlook still implies meaningful losses and heavy investment. The decline also lines up with fresh analyst caution and price-target cuts that highlight the gap between revenue momentum and near-term profitability.

Details:

Lemonade reported Q4 2025 revenue of $228.1 million and a net loss of $0.29 per share, with adjusted EBITDA loss narrowing to about $5 million as in-force premium rose to roughly $1.24 billion.

For 2026, Lemonade guided to revenue of about $1.187–$1.192 billion, but also projected an adjusted EBITDA loss of roughly $48–$52 million for the full year (despite expecting a positive adjusted EBITDA quarter in Q4 2026).

Near-term guidance also pointed to an adjusted EBITDA loss in Q1 2026 (roughly $22–$25 million), reinforcing that profitability may remain uneven while growth spending continues.

Piper Sandler lowered its price target to $65 from $85 while keeping a Neutral stance, adding to the caution around profit trajectory even with improved underwriting.

Sources:

Lemonade Investor Relations, Zacks, Stocktwits

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$LMND Insider Trading Activity

$LMND insiders have traded $LMND stock on the open market 25 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 25 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $LMND stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

DANIEL A. SCHREIBER (Chief Executive Officer) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 135,733 shares for an estimated $12,898,508.
ADINA ECKSTEIN (Chief Operating Officer) has made 0 purchases and 9 sales selling 132,620 shares for an estimated $10,233,820.
JOHN SHELDON PETERS (Chief Insurance Officer) has made 0 purchases and 8 sales selling 53,344 shares for an estimated $4,078,173.
TIMOTHY E BIXBY (Chief Financial Officer) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 35,768 shares for an estimated $2,619,769.
DEBRA SCHWARTZ sold 4,200 shares for an estimated $351,078
MAYA PROSOR (Chief Business Officer) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 480 shares for an estimated $28,598.

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$LMND Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 193 institutional investors add shares of $LMND stock to their portfolio, and 167 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

SOFTBANK GROUP CORP. removed 2,638,428 shares (-74.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $187,803,305
M&T BANK CORP added 1,069,228 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $76,107,649
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO added 977,260 shares (+27.9%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $69,561,366
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ added 965,321 shares (+186.0%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $68,711,548
D. E. SHAW & CO., INC. removed 656,369 shares (-36.1%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $46,720,345
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ removed 594,145 shares (-71.5%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $42,291,241
BIT CAPITAL GMBH added 572,248 shares (+45.6%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $40,732,612

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$LMND Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $LMND in the last several months. We have seen 2 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 2 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Cantor Fitzgerald issued a "Overweight" rating on 01/14/2026
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods issued a "Underperform" rating on 11/25/2025
Citizens issued a "Market Outperform" rating on 11/24/2025
Morgan Stanley issued a "Underweight" rating on 11/17/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $LMND, check out Quiver Quantitative's $LMND forecast page.

$LMND Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $LMND recently. We have seen 6 analysts offer price targets for $LMND in the last 6 months, with a median target of $67.5.

Here are some recent targets:

Ryan Tunis from Cantor Fitzgerald set a target price of $92.0 on 01/14/2026
Arvind Ramnani from Truist Securities set a target price of $98.0 on 01/06/2026
Tommy McJoynt from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods set a target price of $40.0 on 11/25/2025
Matthew Carletti from Citizens set a target price of $80.0 on 11/24/2025
Bob Huang from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $53.0 on 11/17/2025
John Barnidge from Piper Sandler set a target price of $55.0 on 10/10/2025

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.