Dow slides as softer third-quarter outlook appears to weigh on shares

Dow Inc. (DOW) is down 3.3% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The most likely catalyst is investor reaction to management’s mid-September conference update, which pointed to a lower third-quarter EBITDA range than the level discussed with second-quarter results, largely because polyethylene prices weakened early in the quarter. Broader pressure on materials shares during a risk-off session likely added to the decline.

Details:

At a September 16 investor conference, Dow’s finance chief outlined expected third-quarter EBITDA of about $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion, below the prior $1.7 billion level tied to the company’s summer outlook.

The update pointed to early-quarter polyethylene price declines as a headwind, suggesting that packaging and plastics margins may not hold the strength seen in the second quarter.

Dow’s July 23 second-quarter release had shown sharply improved earnings, helped by higher polyethylene prices and self-help actions, so the newer conference commentary appears to have tempered that momentum.

Friday’s trading backdrop was also weak for cyclical and materials names as higher Treasury yields weighed on sentiment, which may have amplified the stock-specific pressure.

Sources:

Dow Investor Relations, ICIS, Charles Schwab

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$DOW Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 532 institutional investors add shares of $DOW stock to their portfolio, and 763 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP added 13,367,989 shares (+296.7%) to their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $365,748,179
CAPITAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTORS removed 9,146,090 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $250,237,022
CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS added 8,641,482 shares (+121.7%) to their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $236,430,947
BLACKROCK, INC. added 8,405,052 shares (+15.8%) to their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $229,962,222
SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P. added 7,851,245 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $214,810,063
QUBE RESEARCH & TECHNOLOGIES LTD added 6,879,031 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $188,210,288
PZENA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC removed 6,440,591 shares (-34.0%) from their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $176,214,569

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Quiver Quantitative API 13F endpoint.

$DOW Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $DOW stock 1 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 0 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $DOW stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

SENATOR ALAN ARMSTRONG purchased up to $15,000 on 03/27.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard. You can access data on congressional stock trades through the Quiver Quantitative API Congress trades endpoint.

$DOW Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $DOW in the last several months. We have seen 1 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Argus Research issued a "Buy" rating on 05/13/2026

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $DOW, check out Quiver Quantitative's $DOW forecast page.

$DOW Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $DOW recently. We have seen 10 analysts offer price targets for $DOW in the last 6 months, with a median target of $36.0.

Here are some recent targets:

John McNulty from BMO Capital set a target price of $33.0 on 07/06/2026
Hassan Ahmed from Alembic Global set a target price of $45.0 on 07/02/2026
John Roberts from Mizuho set a target price of $35.0 on 07/01/2026
Arun Viswanathan from RBC Capital set a target price of $28.0 on 07/01/2026
Matthew DeYoe from B of A Securities set a target price of $29.0 on 06/30/2026
Patrick Cunningham from Citigroup set a target price of $35.0 on 06/24/2026
Joshua Spector from UBS set a target price of $37.0 on 06/05/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.