Circle jumps after Q4 results beat expectations and USDC growth accelerates

Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) is up 18.8% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The stock appears to be rallying on a strong Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings release, featuring a material beat on profitability and evidence of accelerating USDC adoption. Investors likely viewed the combination of higher revenue/reserve income, sharply higher adjusted EBITDA, and rising stablecoin circulation as a sign that Circle’s core business momentum is improving.

Details:

Circle reported Q4 revenue and reserve income of about $770 million, up 77% year over year, alongside a large increase in profitability (including roughly $0.43 in EPS).

Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 rose to about $167 million, far above year-ago levels, suggesting operating leverage as scale expands.

USDC in circulation ended 2025 at about $75.3 billion (up 72%), pointing to broader usage of Circle’s stablecoin network.

The company also highlighted sharp growth in onchain USDC activity (including Q4 transaction volume of about $11.9 trillion, up 247%), reinforcing the narrative of rising utility and adoption.

Sources:

Circle Internet Group (SEC filing), MarketWatch, The Wall Street Journal

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$CRCL Insider Trading Activity

$CRCL insiders have traded $CRCL stock on the open market 39 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 39 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $CRCL stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

RAJEEV V DATE has made 0 purchases and 12 sales selling 481,615 shares for an estimated $38,401,478.
NIKHIL CHANDHOK (Chief Product & Tech. Officer) has made 0 purchases and 6 sales selling 120,000 shares for an estimated $9,508,003.
JEREMY FOX-GEEN (Chief Financial Officer) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 57,438 shares for an estimated $6,226,391.
PATRICK SEAN NEVILLE has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 68,569 shares for an estimated $6,005,043.
JEREMY ALLAIRE (Chairman and CEO) has made 0 purchases and 10 sales selling 15,626 shares for an estimated $1,407,277.
TAMARA L SCHULZ (Chief Accounting Officer) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 6,965 shares for an estimated $547,407.
HEATH TARBERT (President) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 4,348 shares for an estimated $391,510.
DANITA K OSTLING sold 2,662 shares for an estimated $225,444

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$CRCL Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 328 institutional investors add shares of $CRCL stock to their portfolio, and 198 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

GENERAL CATALYST GROUP MANAGEMENT, LLC removed 19,001,041 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $1,506,782,551
FMR LLC removed 12,380,221 shares (-95.5%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $981,751,525
ACCEL XI ASSOCIATES L.L.C. added 6,479,748 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $513,844,016
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC added 2,067,446 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $163,948,467
MARSHALL WACE, LLP added 1,919,205 shares (+23.8%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $152,192,956
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP removed 1,908,941 shares (-60.6%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $151,379,021
ATLAS MERCHANT CAPITAL LLC removed 1,687,376 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $133,808,916

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$CRCL Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $CRCL in the last several months. We have seen 6 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

JP Morgan issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/13/2025
Needham issued a "Buy" rating on 11/13/2025
Wells Fargo issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/13/2025
Monness, Crespi, Hardt issued a "Buy" rating on 11/10/2025
William Blair issued a "Outperform" rating on 10/14/2025
Canaccord Genuity issued a "Buy" rating on 09/11/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $CRCL, check out Quiver Quantitative's $CRCL forecast page.

$CRCL Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $CRCL recently. We have seen 13 analysts offer price targets for $CRCL in the last 6 months, with a median target of $90.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Kenneth Worthington from JP Morgan set a target price of $90.0 on 02/10/2026
James Faucette from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $66.0 on 02/02/2026
Dan Dolev from Mizuho set a target price of $77.0 on 01/28/2026
James Yaro from Goldman Sachs set a target price of $88.0 on 01/06/2026
Mike Colonnese from HC Wainwright & Co. set a target price of $85.0 on 12/19/2025
Daniel Krebs from Wolfe Research set a target price of $60.0 on 12/02/2025
David Koning from Baird set a target price of $110.0 on 11/14/2025

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.