AGNC Falls as Investors Brace for Earnings and Rate Sensitivity

AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) is down 3.6% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The most likely driver appears to be a mix of earnings-related caution and the stock’s sensitivity to interest-rate and mortgage-spread moves. This could be because investors are positioning ahead of AGNC’s third-quarter results, while the company’s own filings show that higher rates and wider mortgage spreads can pressure tangible book value.

Details:

AGNC said it plans to report third-quarter 2026 earnings after market close on October 19, with a stockholder call scheduled for October 20.

The company invests primarily in agency residential mortgage-backed securities and uses leverage, which makes equity value sensitive to changes in rates, prepayment assumptions, and mortgage spreads.

In its latest quarterly filing, AGNC showed that a 50-basis-point rise in interest rates could reduce estimated tangible net book value per common share by about 5.3% in a static scenario.

The same filing showed that a 25-basis-point widening in mortgage-backed securities spreads could reduce estimated tangible net book value per common share by about 12.2%, underscoring why the shares can trade weakly when investors grow more defensive.

Sources:

AGNC Investment Corp., SEC, AP News

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$AGNC Insider Trading Activity

$AGNC insiders have traded $AGNC stock on the open market 8 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 8 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $AGNC stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

PETER J FEDERICO (Director, President, CEO, CIO) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 193,234 shares for an estimated $2,126,604.
BERNICE BELL (EVP, CFO) has made 0 purchases and 4 sales selling 30,000 shares for an estimated $328,920.
PAUL E MULLINGS sold 6,800 shares for an estimated $73,032

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard. You can access data on insider stock transactions through the Quiver Quantitative API insider transaction endpoint.

$AGNC Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 385 institutional investors add shares of $AGNC stock to their portfolio, and 248 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

SIXTH STREET PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P. added 8,146,540 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $88,797,286
VAUGHAN NELSON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, L.P. added 6,048,882 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $65,932,813
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC removed 4,801,770 shares (-95.9%) from their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $52,339,293
HRT FINANCIAL LP added 4,354,395 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $47,462,905
UBS GROUP AG added 4,220,736 shares (+18.3%) to their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $46,006,022
BLACKROCK, INC. added 4,174,076 shares (+6.9%) to their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $45,497,428
QUBE RESEARCH & TECHNOLOGIES LTD removed 4,024,820 shares (-51.7%) from their portfolio in Q2 2026, for an estimated $43,870,538

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Quiver Quantitative API 13F endpoint.

$AGNC Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $AGNC recently. We have seen 2 analysts offer price targets for $AGNC in the last 6 months, with a median target of $11.5.

Here are some recent targets:

Crispin Love from Piper Sandler set a target price of $12.0 on 07/02/2026
Marissa Lobo from UBS set a target price of $11.0 on 04/24/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.