A trader just put $33,500 into contracts betting on "6,725 to 6,749.9999" in a "Will the S&P 500 be between 6725 and 6749.9999 on Oct 6, 2025 at 4pm EDT?" market.
This is one of the largest trades we have seen on a prediction market over the last day.
Market Context
This contract comes from Kalshi’s prediction markets, which allow traders to bet on the outcome of specific events. From our prediction market tracking, the trade was made on 10/06 at 01:39 PM EST when the market was giving a 67% chance of their bet paying off.
There have been 122,963 contracts traded in this market in the last day.
Market Rules
Here are some of the rules that were given for the market:
If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on October 06, 2025 is between 6725-6749.9999, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close on October 06, 2025. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after October 06, 2025.
Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.
You can find up-to-date information on Kalshi.
Why this matters
Prediction markets have become critical tools for aggregating diverse expectations about future events, offering a real-time gauge of collective market sentiment. They provide transparent and quantifiable odds on a variety of outcomes, presenting a unique mechanism for risk transfer and informed decision-making across financial markets.
Moreover, these markets enhance price discovery and offer insights that traditional forecasting methods might miss, serving as valuable complements for investors, policymakers, and analysts assessing economic and financial scenarios. The volume and liquidity seen in such markets also reveal growing trust and participation from institutional and retail participants alike, underscoring their increasing relevance in modern financial ecosystems.
