A trader just put $26,998 into contracts betting against "25,000 or above" in a "Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 24999.99 at the end of Oct 6, 2025 at 4pm EDT?" market.
This is one of the largest trades we have seen on a prediction market over the last day.
Market Context
This contract comes from Kalshi’s prediction markets, which allow traders to bet on the outcome of specific events. From our prediction market tracking, the trade was made on 10/06 at 12:03 PM EST when the market was giving a 47% chance of their bet paying off.
There have been 60,127 contracts traded in this market in the last day.
Market Rules
Here are some of the rules that were given for the market:
If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on October 06, 2025 is above 24999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close on October 06, 2025. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after October 06, 2025.
Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.
You can find up-to-date information on Kalshi.
Why this matters
The prediction market centered around the Nasdaq-100's future value offers a unique avenue for price discovery and market sentiment analysis on long-term economic indicators. These markets aggregate diverse investor beliefs into quantifiable probabilities, providing critical insight that can inform broader financial strategies and risk assessments.
Leveraging real-time data and significant trading volumes, prediction markets serve as effective barometers of market expectations, especially on key financial benchmarks like the Nasdaq-100. This makes them an important complement to traditional financial markets by enhancing transparency and market efficiency.
