A trader just put $21,770 into contracts betting against "$122,500 or above" in a "Bitcoin price on Oct 3, 2025?" market.
This is one of the largest trades we have seen on a prediction market over the last day.
Market Context
This contract comes from Kalshi’s prediction markets, which allow traders to bet on the outcome of specific events. From our prediction market tracking, the trade was made on 10/03 at 06:12 PM EST when the market was giving a 45% chance of their bet paying off.
There have been 138,988 contracts traded in this market in the last day.
Market Rules
Here are some of the rules that were given for the market:
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 7 PM EDT is above 122499.99 at 7 PM EDT on Oct 3, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices.
You can find up-to-date information on Kalshi.
Why this matters
The prediction market for Bitcoin prices serves as a critical barometer for investor sentiment and market expectations regarding the future of this leading cryptocurrency. It aggregates diverse viewpoints into a quantifiable probability, offering valuable insights into the market's collective outlook on Bitcoin's price trajectory.
By enabling bets on specific price thresholds, these markets provide a structured framework for risk assessment and price discovery. This not only informs portfolio strategies but also enhances transparency in an otherwise volatile asset class. The significant volume of contracts traded underscores the growing importance of prediction markets as a tool for forecasting and hedging in financial ecosystems.
