Verra Mobility plunges after Avis Budget termination notice and guidance cut

Verra Mobility (VRRM) is down 71.8% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The selloff appears tied to Verra Mobility disclosing that Avis Budget Group delivered a termination notice for a major Commercial Services agreement, effective September 2026. The company also lowered its 2026 outlook and quantified a sizable annualized revenue and profit headwind from the termination, which likely triggered a sharp repricing of near-term earnings power and customer-concentration risk.

Details:

Verra Mobility disclosed it received a termination notice from Avis Budget Group for an existing contract, with the termination effective in September 2026.

The company said Avis Budget was a significant Commercial Services customer and represented over 10% of total revenue in the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and the year ended December 31, 2025.

Verra Mobility revised its full-year 2026 guidance to total revenue of $985 million to $995 million and adjusted EBITDA of $380 million to $385 million (alongside updated ranges for adjusted EPS and free cash flow).

The company estimated the termination could reduce Commercial Services’ 2026 annualized revenue by about $135 million to $145 million and annualized segment profit by about $120 million to $125 million, before cost actions.

Sources:

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Verra Mobility Investor Relations, Investing.com

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

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$VRRM Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 157 institutional investors add shares of $VRRM stock to their portfolio, and 200 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/ added 5,778,147 shares (+49133.9%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $82,569,720
J. GOLDMAN & CO LP removed 1,593,183 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $22,766,585
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP removed 1,589,322 shares (-22.5%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $22,711,411
SNYDER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT L P added 1,360,138 shares (+55.3%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $19,436,372
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO removed 1,316,997 shares (-21.2%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $29,513,902
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC added 1,295,645 shares (+54.4%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $18,514,767
D. E. SHAW & CO., INC. added 1,159,951 shares (+112.9%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $25,994,501

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Quiver Quantitative API 13F endpoint.

$VRRM Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $VRRM recently. We have seen 4 analysts offer price targets for $VRRM in the last 6 months, with a median target of $8.5.

Here are some recent targets:

David Koning from Baird set a target price of $8.0 on 05/27/2026
Faiza Alwy from Deutsche Bank set a target price of $9.0 on 05/27/2026
Tomohiko Sano from JP Morgan set a target price of $8.0 on 05/27/2026
James Faucette from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $20.0 on 02/25/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.