Valero slips as crude swings higher, raising near-term margin worries

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is down 3.3% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The most likely driver is macro: a sharp move higher in crude oil prices can pressure refiner equities because feedstock costs can rise faster than gasoline and diesel prices, narrowing near-term crack spreads. The stock may also be seeing lingering risk discounting tied to operational uncertainty after a recent incident at Valero’s Port Arthur, Texas refinery.

Details:

Crude oil prices have been volatile in recent sessions, with a rapid rebound higher tied to renewed geopolitical and shipping-risk concerns around the Strait of Hormuz.

Higher crude prices can weigh on refiners’ near-term margin expectations when product prices (gasoline/distillates) do not immediately keep pace.

Valero confirmed a recent explosion and fire at its Port Arthur refinery, with the incident prompting a temporary shutdown and adding uncertainty around throughput and repair timelines.

Separately, Valero has disclosed plans to cease refining operations at its Benicia, California refinery by the end of April 2026, a backdrop that can amplify sensitivity to other operational headlines.

Sources:

Axios, Associated Press, Valero

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$VLO Insider Trading Activity

$VLO insiders have traded $VLO stock on the open market 4 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 4 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $VLO stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

ERIC A FISHER (SVP) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 8,711 shares for an estimated $1,987,772.
JASON W. FRASER (EVP & CFO) sold 9,933 shares for an estimated $1,728,539

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$VLO Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 739 institutional investors add shares of $VLO stock to their portfolio, and 675 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 4,951,621 shares (-76.1%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $806,074,382
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ removed 2,002,124 shares (-16.6%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $325,925,765
AGF MANAGEMENT LTD added 1,625,435 shares (+5195.9%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $264,604,563
INVESCO LTD. removed 1,054,565 shares (-29.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $171,672,636
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO removed 958,664 shares (-38.4%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $156,060,912
PACER ADVISORS, INC. added 915,782 shares (+2635.7%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $149,080,151
FMR LLC added 868,566 shares (+14.7%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $141,393,859

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$VLO Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $VLO stock 1 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $VLO stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. sold up to $15,000 on 01/09.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$VLO Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $VLO in the last several months. We have seen 5 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Barclays issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/17/2025
Piper Sandler issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/14/2025
Wells Fargo issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/10/2025
JP Morgan issued a "Overweight" rating on 10/24/2025
Raymond James issued a "Strong Buy" rating on 10/24/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $VLO, check out Quiver Quantitative's $VLO forecast page.

$VLO Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $VLO recently. We have seen 13 analysts offer price targets for $VLO in the last 6 months, with a median target of $237.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Ryan Todd from Piper Sandler set a target price of $263.0 on 04/08/2026
Theresa Chen from Barclays set a target price of $261.0 on 04/08/2026
Phillip Jungwirth from BMO Capital set a target price of $270.0 on 04/06/2026
Manav Gupta from UBS set a target price of $280.0 on 04/02/2026
Sam Margolin from Wells Fargo set a target price of $292.0 on 03/31/2026
Justin Jenkins from Raymond James set a target price of $290.0 on 03/25/2026
Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs set a target price of $237.0 on 03/12/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.