Valero shares slide as oil tumbles on U.S.–Iran deal, pressuring refining outlook

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is down 5.8% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The move appears tied to a sharp drop in crude prices after a U.S.–Iran agreement raised expectations that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz could normalize, removing a key geopolitical risk premium. Refining stocks also weakened alongside the broader energy group, as traders repriced near-term margin expectations after the conflict-driven spike.

Details:

Oil prices fell sharply after U.S. and Iranian officials described an initial agreement to halt fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for global crude and product shipments.

In early trading, U.S. energy shares fell broadly, and major refiners (including Valero) traded lower as crude prices tumbled on the de-escalation headline.

Valero’s recent regulatory filings outlined ongoing portfolio changes in California, including steps taken in early 2026 to idle processing units at its Benicia site and cease fuel production there, which can add uncertainty around regional earnings mix and costs.

This could also be amplified by short-term positioning after a strong prior run in refining equities tied to elevated crack spreads during the conflict period.

Sources:

Reuters, SEC (EDGAR)

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$VLO Insider Trading Activity

$VLO insiders have traded $VLO stock on the open market 4 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 4 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $VLO stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

ERIC A FISHER (SVP) has made 0 purchases and 4 sales selling 16,211 shares for an estimated $3,874,836.

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard. You can access data on insider stock transactions through the Quiver Quantitative API insider transaction endpoint.

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$VLO Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 975 institutional investors add shares of $VLO stock to their portfolio, and 748 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC removed 9,007,160 shares (-75.4%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $2,225,489,092
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ removed 1,890,894 shares (-18.9%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $467,202,089
FMR LLC added 1,609,265 shares (+23.8%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $397,617,196
STATE STREET CORP added 1,437,811 shares (+7.9%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $355,254,341
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC added 1,281,437 shares (+1850.8%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $316,617,453
INVESCO LTD. removed 1,054,565 shares (-29.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $171,672,636
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP removed 1,020,610 shares (-43.8%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $252,172,318

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Quiver Quantitative API 13F endpoint.

$VLO Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $VLO stock 1 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $VLO stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. sold up to $15,000 on 01/09.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard. You can access data on congressional stock trades through the Quiver Quantitative API Congress trades endpoint.

$VLO Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $VLO recently. We have seen 14 analysts offer price targets for $VLO in the last 6 months, with a median target of $260.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Joe Laetsch from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $255.0 on 06/12/2026
Nitin Kumar from Mizuho set a target price of $289.0 on 05/27/2026
Vikram Bagri from Citigroup set a target price of $259.0 on 05/01/2026
Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen set a target price of $255.0 on 04/27/2026
Betty Zhang from Scotiabank set a target price of $226.0 on 04/22/2026
Doug Leggate from Wolfe Research set a target price of $203.0 on 04/21/2026
Ryan Todd from Piper Sandler set a target price of $263.0 on 04/08/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.