United Airlines slides as oil spike revives jet-fuel cost fears tied to Iran war

United Airlines Holdings (UAL) is down 7.5% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The selloff appears primarily linked to a renewed surge in crude oil prices tied to the Iran war, which typically raises jet-fuel costs and pressures airline profit expectations. Investors also appear to be repricing near-term earnings risk after recent commentary highlighting airlines’ sensitivity to fuel swings, alongside at least one analyst price-target cut amid the same macro backdrop.

Details:

Oil prices jumped sharply as markets reacted to escalating Middle East conflict and potential disruptions to production and shipping, a setup that tends to hit airlines because fuel is a major variable expense.

United has recently been discussed as having meaningful exposure to spot fuel moves, which can quickly affect quarterly margin assumptions when energy prices rise faster than fares can adjust.

Broader risk-off trading tied to the oil shock weighed on travel-related equities, with airlines often selling off in tandem when oil spikes and demand uncertainty increases.

An analyst reduced a price target in early March, citing heightened uncertainty from the conflict and fuel-cost implications, which may have added to negative sentiment.

Sources:

AP News, Forbes, Benzinga

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$UAL Insider Trading Activity

$UAL insiders have traded $UAL stock on the open market 2 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 2 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $UAL stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

J SCOTT KIRBY (Chief Executive Officer) sold 120,000 shares for an estimated $12,943,800
BRETT J HART (President) sold 19,000 shares for an estimated $2,022,568

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$UAL Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 546 institutional investors add shares of $UAL stock to their portfolio, and 458 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS removed 3,815,497 shares (-17.3%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $426,648,874
BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT L.P. removed 2,641,208 shares (-99.8%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $295,339,878
UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 2,048,224 shares (-72.5%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $229,032,407
PRIMECAP MANAGEMENT CO/CA/ removed 2,024,470 shares (-11.2%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $226,376,235
FMR LLC added 1,857,987 shares (+12.8%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $207,760,106
HOLOCENE ADVISORS, LP removed 1,491,352 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $166,762,980
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP added 1,305,748 shares (+3647.3%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $146,008,741

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$UAL Government Contracts

We have seen $7,847,665 of award payments to $UAL over the last year.

Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:

CIVIL RESERVE AIR FLEET - AIR TRANSPORTATION SERVICES: $4,030,679
CIVIL RESERVE AIR FLEET - AIR TRANSPORTATION SERVICES: $717,831
CIVIL RESERVE AIR FLEET - AIR TRANSPORTATION SERVICES: $717,831
CIVIL RESERVE AIR FLEET - AIR TRANSPORTATION SERVICES: $278,000
TO PROVIDE HEAVYWEIGHT DELIVERY SERVICES FOR DOMESTIC & INTERNATIONAL SHIPMENTS: $151,077

To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard.

$UAL Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $UAL stock 1 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 0 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $UAL stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. purchased up to $15,000 on 12/19.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$UAL Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $UAL in the last several months. We have seen 8 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

TD Cowen issued a "Buy" rating on 01/22/2026
Barclays issued a "Overweight" rating on 01/12/2026
UBS issued a "Buy" rating on 01/06/2026
Wells Fargo issued a "Overweight" rating on 12/18/2025
BMO Capital issued a "Outperform" rating on 12/09/2025
Susquehanna issued a "Positive" rating on 10/03/2025
Jefferies issued a "Buy" rating on 10/01/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $UAL, check out Quiver Quantitative's $UAL forecast page.

$UAL Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $UAL recently. We have seen 15 analysts offer price targets for $UAL in the last 6 months, with a median target of $135.0.

Here are some recent targets:

James Goodall from Rothschild & Co set a target price of $110.0 on 03/05/2026
Tom Fitzgerald from TD Cowen set a target price of $140.0 on 01/22/2026
John Staszak from Argus Research set a target price of $135.0 on 01/22/2026
Atul Maheswari from UBS set a target price of $147.0 on 01/22/2026
Catherine O'Brien from Goldman Sachs set a target price of $129.0 on 01/13/2026
Brandon Oglenski from Barclays set a target price of $150.0 on 01/12/2026
Christopher Stathoulopoulos from Susquehanna set a target price of $150.0 on 01/09/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.