Toast shares rise 5.6% as investors revisit Q4 strength, 2026 outlook, and expanded buyback

Toast, Inc. (TOST) is up 5.6% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The move appears tied to a renewed bid following Toast’s recently reported Q4/full-year 2025 results, including upbeat 2026 profitability and gross profit guidance and a larger share repurchase authorization. After a choppy post-earnings period for software and fintech names, the stock’s rebound suggests buyers are focusing on improving cash generation and capital return.

Details:

Toast reported Q4 2025 profitability and strong full-year operating performance, alongside continued expansion in restaurant locations and recurring revenue metrics.

The company issued 2026 guidance for subscription services and fintech gross profit growth and higher adjusted EBITDA, reinforcing an expectation of continued operating leverage.

Toast’s board authorized an additional $500 million increase to its existing share repurchase program, giving the company more flexibility to buy shares opportunistically.

The company highlighted recent customer wins, including an agreement involving a rollout across more than 1,000 Papa Murphy’s U.S. locations, supporting the narrative of enterprise/multi-unit momentum.

Sources:

Toast Investor Relations, U.S. SEC, The Motley Fool

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$TOST Insider Trading Activity

$TOST insiders have traded $TOST stock on the open market 21 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 21 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $TOST stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

JONATHAN VASSIL (Chief Revenue Officer) has made 0 purchases and 5 sales selling 80,603 shares for an estimated $2,872,909.
AMAN NARANG (CEO) has made 0 purchases and 4 sales selling 25,623 shares for an estimated $892,414.
ELENA GOMEZ (President, CFO) has made 0 purchases and 4 sales selling 19,184 shares for an estimated $666,789.
STEPHEN FREDETTE (President) has made 0 purchases and 4 sales selling 15,208 shares for an estimated $529,505.
BRIAN R ELWORTHY (General Counsel) has made 0 purchases and 4 sales selling 9,997 shares for an estimated $348,204.

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$TOST Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 396 institutional investors add shares of $TOST stock to their portfolio, and 433 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

T. ROWE PRICE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, INC. removed 6,068,369 shares (-56.8%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $215,487,783
UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 5,690,034 shares (-75.1%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $202,053,107
VALUEACT HOLDINGS, L.P. added 4,618,077 shares (+135.9%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $163,987,914
1832 ASSET MANAGEMENT L.P. added 4,064,200 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $144,319,742
DURABLE CAPITAL PARTNERS LP removed 4,061,875 shares (-63.9%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $144,237,181
BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT L.P. added 4,021,923 shares (+41115.5%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $142,818,485
LORD, ABBETT & CO. LLC removed 3,148,033 shares (-94.8%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $111,786,651

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$TOST Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $TOST in the last several months. We have seen 9 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Needham issued a "Buy" rating on 02/13/2026
UBS issued a "Buy" rating on 12/04/2025
JP Morgan issued a "Overweight" rating on 12/04/2025
BNP Paribas Exane issued a "Outperform" rating on 12/01/2025
Truist Securities issued a "Buy" rating on 11/13/2025
Morgan Stanley issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/05/2025
Jefferies issued a "Buy" rating on 11/05/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $TOST, check out Quiver Quantitative's $TOST forecast page.

$TOST Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $TOST recently. We have seen 15 analysts offer price targets for $TOST in the last 6 months, with a median target of $42.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Will Nance from Goldman Sachs set a target price of $31.0 on 02/17/2026
Peter Heckmann from DA Davidson set a target price of $33.0 on 02/17/2026
Dan Dolev from Mizuho set a target price of $45.0 on 02/17/2026
Bryan Keane from Citigroup set a target price of $42.0 on 02/13/2026
Mayank Tandon from Needham set a target price of $35.0 on 02/13/2026
Rayna Kumar from Oppenheimer set a target price of $39.0 on 02/13/2026
Jason Kupferberg from Wells Fargo set a target price of $36.0 on 02/13/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.