Onto Innovation (ONTO) slides 5.5% as investors weigh a small Q4 earnings miss and margin pressure despite upbeat Q1 outlook

Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) is down 5.5% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The selloff appears tied to the company’s fiscal Q4 results and commentary, with investors focusing on a slight earnings miss and year-over-year profitability pressure. Even though first-quarter guidance came in solid, weaker GAAP margins and a sizable decline in GAAP earnings versus last year likely drove a “good news not good enough” reaction.

Details:

Onto posted Q4 revenue of $266.9 million and non-GAAP EPS of $1.26, slightly below consensus expectations for EPS.

GAAP gross margin fell to 46.4% from 50.2% a year earlier, while GAAP operating income dropped sharply year over year, signaling near-term profitability pressure.

For fiscal Q1 (ending March 31, 2026), Onto guided revenue to $275–$285 million and non-GAAP EPS to $1.26–$1.36, which investors may be viewing as insufficient to offset the Q4 margin/earnings trend.

The company highlighted a new volume purchase agreement estimated at over $240 million with a leading HBM manufacturer for Dragonfly systems through 2027, but the market appears to be prioritizing near-term execution and margins.

Sources:

Onto Innovation Investor Relations (press release), Associated Press, Investor’s Business Daily

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$ONTO Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 240 institutional investors add shares of $ONTO stock to their portfolio, and 312 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

RAFFERTY ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC removed 639,566 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $82,644,718
JENNISON ASSOCIATES LLC added 631,965 shares (+1293.5%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $99,761,994
CUBIST SYSTEMATIC STRATEGIES, LLC removed 505,722 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $65,349,396
D. E. SHAW & CO., INC. removed 485,621 shares (-48.4%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $76,660,131
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC added 467,587 shares (+315.8%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $73,813,283
THRIVENT FINANCIAL FOR LUTHERANS added 451,084 shares (+88.5%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $71,208,120
UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 433,217 shares (-74.8%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $68,387,635

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$ONTO Government Contracts

We have seen $4,858,274 of award payments to $ONTO over the last year.

Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:

SEISMIC EQUIPMENT: $868,277
SEISMIC EQUIPMENT: $743,858
SEISMIC EQUIPMENT: $641,302
GEOPHYSICAL FIELD SYSTEM REPLACEMENT SYSTEM: $589,439
SEISMIC EQUIPMENT: $556,404

To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard.

$ONTO Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $ONTO in the last several months. We have seen 4 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Needham issued a "Buy" rating on 01/20/2026
B. Riley Securities issued a "Buy" rating on 01/15/2026
Oppenheimer issued a "Outperform" rating on 10/14/2025
Jefferies issued a "Buy" rating on 09/23/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $ONTO, check out Quiver Quantitative's $ONTO forecast page.

$ONTO Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $ONTO recently. We have seen 7 analysts offer price targets for $ONTO in the last 6 months, with a median target of $250.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Brian Chin from Stifel set a target price of $220.0 on 02/20/2026
Craig Ellis from B. Riley Securities set a target price of $275.0 on 02/20/2026
Charles Shi from Needham set a target price of $275.0 on 02/20/2026
Mark Lipacis from Evercore ISI Group set a target price of $250.0 on 02/19/2026
Matthew Prisco from Cantor Fitzgerald set a target price of $275.0 on 02/17/2026
Blayne Curtis from Jefferies set a target price of $200.0 on 12/15/2025
Edward Yang from Oppenheimer set a target price of $180.0 on 10/14/2025

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.