Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) slides as investors refocus on soft freight volumes and valuation

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) is down 7.6% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The most likely driver looks like renewed concern about still-weak less-than-truckload demand after the company’s recent first-quarter operating update showed year-over-year declines in revenue per day and tonnage. The selloff also appears consistent with a valuation reset following recent analyst downgrades; this could be amplified by profit-taking after the stock’s sharp run-up into early March.

Details:

The company’s March 3, 2026 operating update (filed on Form 8-K) showed February 2026 revenue per day down 3.3% year over year, with LTL tons per day down 6.8% and shipments per day down 7.0%.

That same update showed yield remaining comparatively firm, with quarter-to-date LTL revenue per hundredweight up 3.5% (4.1% excluding fuel surcharges), highlighting pricing strength but not enough to offset volume softness.

Recent earnings materials and commentary have pointed to continued near-term pressure in 2026, including expectations for seasonally weaker first-quarter profitability versus the prior quarter.

Multiple sell-side actions in recent weeks (including downgrades) have emphasized valuation and volume risk, potentially contributing to today’s downside move.

Sources:

SEC (Company 8-K/press release), Old Dominion Freight Line Investor Relations, Investing.com

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$ODFL Insider Trading Activity

$ODFL insiders have traded $ODFL stock on the open market 4 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 4 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $ODFL stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

DAVID S CONGDON (Executive Chairman) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 52,000 shares for an estimated $10,127,839.
GREG C GANTT sold 12,024 shares for an estimated $2,361,874
BRADLEY R GABOSCH sold 3,134 shares for an estimated $608,842

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$ODFL Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 471 institutional investors add shares of $ODFL stock to their portfolio, and 516 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

FMR LLC added 5,109,768 shares (+288.4%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $801,211,622
UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 3,403,605 shares (-78.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $533,685,264
BOSTON PARTNERS added 2,044,434 shares (+98.4%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $320,567,251
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ added 1,761,511 shares (+14.1%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $276,204,924
AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC removed 1,246,482 shares (-83.1%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $195,448,377
LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC removed 1,186,192 shares (-57.7%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $185,994,905
FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC added 1,004,609 shares (+122.9%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $157,522,691

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$ODFL Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $ODFL stock 1 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $ODFL stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE RICK LARSEN sold up to $15,000 on 10/06.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$ODFL Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $ODFL in the last several months. We have seen 6 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 2 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Baird issued a "Underperform" rating on 02/05/2026
Stifel issued a "Buy" rating on 01/21/2026
Truist Securities issued a "Buy" rating on 01/15/2026
BMO Capital issued a "Outperform" rating on 12/01/2025
Raymond James issued a "Outperform" rating on 10/30/2025
Wells Fargo issued a "Underweight" rating on 10/30/2025
Citigroup issued a "Buy" rating on 10/30/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $ODFL, check out Quiver Quantitative's $ODFL forecast page.

$ODFL Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $ODFL recently. We have seen 18 analysts offer price targets for $ODFL in the last 6 months, with a median target of $182.5.

Here are some recent targets:

Bascome Majors from Susquehanna set a target price of $205.0 on 02/11/2026
Ariel Rosa from Citigroup set a target price of $216.0 on 02/09/2026
Stephanie Moore from Jefferies set a target price of $195.0 on 02/05/2026
Daniel Moore from Baird set a target price of $204.0 on 02/05/2026
Brian Ossenbeck from JP Morgan set a target price of $168.0 on 02/05/2026
Jonathan Chappell from Evercore ISI Group set a target price of $200.0 on 02/05/2026
Thomas Wadewitz from UBS set a target price of $202.0 on 02/05/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.