OpenAI partnership shift triggers volatility: Social media erupted after Microsoft revealed its OpenAI license would turn nonexclusive, eliminating revenue share payments and sparking a 5% plunge to $404 before a rapid rebound. Traders highlighted downside supports at 411-412 and 395-398 amid ongoing AI capex concerns. The swift recovery fueled debate on the stock's resilience.
Analyst adjustments reflect caution: Oppenheimer lowered its price target to $515 from $630 yet held an Outperform rating, pointing to AI headwinds in productivity tools offset by Azure growth prospects. Discussions underscored competition and spending pressures, though long-term AI infrastructure bets persist. Sentiment tilts bearish near-term but optimistic on fundamentals.
Earnings loom amid megacap cluster: Upcoming results coincide with peers and a Fed decision, amplifying volatility expectations in options markets. Some view the pullback as oversold, akin to prior dips testing key averages, while others await capex clarity. Social chatter captures a divided crowd on Microsoft's trajectory.
Note: This discussion summary was generated from an AI condensation of post data.
Microsoft Insider Trading Activity
Microsoft insiders have traded $MSFT stock on the open market 6 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 5 have been sales.
Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MSFT stock by insiders over the last 6 months:
- BRADFORD L SMITH (Vice Chair and President) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 38,500 shares for an estimated $19,967,707.
- JUDSON ALTHOFF (CEO Microsoft Commercial) sold 12,750 shares for an estimated $6,266,829
- KATHLEEN T HOGAN (EVP, Strategy) sold 12,320 shares for an estimated $5,045,642
- JOHN W STANTON purchased 5,000 shares for an estimated $1,986,750
- TAKESHI NUMOTO (EVP, Chief Marketing Officer) sold 2,850 shares for an estimated $1,364,352
To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard. You can access data on insider stock transactions through the Quiver Quantitative API.
Microsoft Revenue
Microsoft had revenues of $81.3B in Q2 2026. This is an increase of 16.72% from the same period in the prior year.
You can track MSFT financials on Quiver Quantitative's MSFT stock page.
Microsoft Congressional Stock Trading
Members of Congress have traded $MSFT stock 40 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 25 have been purchases and 15 have been sales.
Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MSFT stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:
- SENATOR JOHN FETTERMAN has traded it 2 times. They made 2 purchases worth up to $30,000 on 03/30, 03/27 and 0 sales.
- REPRESENTATIVE RICHARD MCCORMICK has traded it 3 times. They made 3 purchases worth up to $45,000 on 03/19, 11/05 and 0 sales.
- REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. has traded it 5 times. They made 3 purchases worth up to $165,000 on 03/13, 11/18, 11/12 and 2 sales worth up to $100,000 on 02/10, 12/19.
- REPRESENTATIVE CLEO FIELDS has traded it 4 times. They made 4 purchases worth up to $60,000 on 03/12, 12/11 and 0 sales.
- SENATOR JOHN BOOZMAN has traded it 3 times. They made 3 purchases worth up to $45,000 on 03/05, 02/13, 12/17 and 0 sales.
- REPRESENTATIVE DAVID TAYLOR has traded it 6 times. They made 6 purchases worth up to $90,000 on 02/26, 02/09, 01/29, 01/16, 01/08 and 0 sales.
- SENATOR ANGUS S. KING JR. sold up to $15,000 on 02/13.
- REPRESENTATIVE JOSH GOTTHEIMER sold up to $15,000 on 02/02.
- REPRESENTATIVE JULIA LETLOW sold up to $15,000 on 02/02.
- REPRESENTATIVE JOHN MCGUIRE has traded it 2 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $15,000 on 01/21 and 1 sale worth up to $15,000 on 01/30.
- REPRESENTATIVE THOMAS H. KEAN, JR. sold up to $15,000 on 01/23.
- SENATOR MARKWAYNE MULLIN has traded it 2 times. They made 2 purchases worth up to $750,000 on 12/29, 11/03 and 0 sales.
- REPRESENTATIVE JULIE JOHNSON has traded it 2 times. They made 0 purchases and 2 sales worth up to $30,000 on 12/18, 11/13.
- SENATOR SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO has traded it 2 times. They made 0 purchases and 2 sales worth up to $65,000 on 12/16, 10/29.
- REPRESENTATIVE DWIGHT EVANS sold up to $15,000 on 11/21.
- REPRESENTATIVE LISA C. MCCLAIN has traded it 3 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $50,000 on 10/30 and 2 sales worth up to $100,000 on 10/31, 10/30.
- REPRESENTATIVE KEVIN HERN sold up to $50,000 on 10/28.
To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard. You can access data on congressional stock trades through the Quiver Quantitative API.
Microsoft Hedge Fund Activity
We have seen 2,967 institutional investors add shares of Microsoft stock to their portfolio, and 2,645 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.
Here are some of the largest recent moves:
- UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 178,000,181 shares (-74.7%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $86,084,447,535
- AUTO-OWNERS INSURANCE CO removed 59,992,081 shares (-99.8%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $21,886,910,911
- CARDANO RISK MANAGEMENT B.V. removed 21,143,944 shares (-89.7%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $7,713,945,089
- VANGUARD GROUP INC added 15,955,898 shares (+2.3%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $7,716,591,390
- CORIENT PRIVATE WEALTH LLC added 12,492,886 shares (+234.4%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $6,041,809,527
- JPMORGAN CHASE & CO removed 11,048,048 shares (-7.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $5,343,056,973
- BLACKROCK, INC. added 10,037,437 shares (+1.7%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $4,854,305,281
To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Quiver Quantitative API.
Microsoft Government Contracts
We have seen $394,489,652 of award payments to $MSFT over the last year.
Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:
- MICROSOFT AZURE STRATUS HSTXXX0000002144 93A34F: $36,680,310
- MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES (MCS) AND UNIFIED SUPPORT FOR THE U.S. NAVY / PROGRAM EXECUTIVE OFFICE DIGITA...: $35,419,844
- MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES (MCS) AND MICROSOFT PREMIER SUPPORT (MPS) FOR THE UNITED STATES MARINE CORPS ...: $31,125,253
- ARMY CYBER COMMANDS MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES AND MICROSOFT PREMIER SUPPORT: $22,811,133
- THE ENTERPRISE CLOUD MANAGEMENT AGENCY (ECMA) REQUIRES MICROSOFT AZURE CLOUD COMPUTING CAPABILITIES AT DEPA...: $21,498,806
To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard.
Microsoft Analyst Ratings
Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $MSFT in the last several months. We have seen 11 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.
Here are some recent analyst ratings:
- Piper Sandler issued a "Overweight" rating on 01/29/2026
- DA Davidson issued a "Buy" rating on 01/29/2026
- Mizuho issued a "Outperform" rating on 01/21/2026
- Citigroup issued a "Buy" rating on 01/21/2026
- TD Cowen issued a "Buy" rating on 01/20/2026
- Wedbush issued a "Outperform" rating on 12/22/2025
- Wells Fargo issued a "Overweight" rating on 10/30/2025
To track analyst ratings and price targets for Microsoft, check out Quiver Quantitative's $MSFT forecast page.
Microsoft Price Targets
Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $MSFT recently. We have seen 28 analysts offer price targets for $MSFT in the last 6 months, with a median target of $583.0.
Here are some recent targets:
- Brian Schwartz from Oppenheimer set a target price of $515.0 on 04/27/2026
- John Difucci from Guggenheim set a target price of $586.0 on 04/23/2026
- Tyler Radke from Citigroup set a target price of $600.0 on 04/22/2026
- Derrick Wood from TD Cowen set a target price of $540.0 on 04/16/2026
- William Power from Baird set a target price of $500.0 on 04/15/2026
- Gregg Moskowitz from Mizuho set a target price of $515.0 on 04/14/2026
- Billy Fitzsimmons from Piper Sandler set a target price of $500.0 on 04/14/2026
This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.
