Earnings Reaction: Social media erupted following Microsoft's fiscal Q2 earnings, with revenue climbing 17% to $81 billion and EPS beating estimates at $4.14. Investors highlighted a perceived slowdown in Azure growth amid massive AI capex hikes to $37.5 billion, triggering a sharp 7% stock drop despite the headline beats.
Valuation Debate: Discussion turned to the stock's 30% plunge from highs, now trading at a forward P/E around 24-25x, levels unseen since early 2023. Many view it as oversold quality amid strong cash flows and cloud revenue topping $50 billion annually, though bears cite AI ROI delays and concentration risks.
Outlook Shift: Amid broader SaaS pressures, optimists eye support near $360-390 and potential rebound above $400, positioning Microsoft for outperformance. Recent antitrust scrutiny in Japan added noise, but fundamentals like operating profit trajectory fuel bullish value calls.
Note: This discussion summary was generated from an AI condensation of post data.
Microsoft Insider Trading Activity
Microsoft insiders have traded $MSFT stock on the open market 11 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 10 have been sales.
Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MSFT stock by insiders over the last 6 months:
- SATYA NADELLA (Chief Executive Officer) has made 0 purchases and 6 sales selling 149,205 shares for an estimated $75,315,120.
- BRADFORD L SMITH (Vice Chair and President) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 38,500 shares for an estimated $19,967,707.
- JUDSON ALTHOFF (CEO Microsoft Commercial) sold 12,750 shares for an estimated $6,266,829
- JOHN W STANTON purchased 5,000 shares for an estimated $1,986,750
- TAKESHI NUMOTO (EVP, Chief Marketing Officer) sold 2,850 shares for an estimated $1,364,352
To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.
Microsoft Revenue
Microsoft had revenues of $77.7B in Q1 2026. This is an increase of 18.43% from the same period in the prior year.
You can track MSFT financials on Quiver Quantitative's MSFT stock page.
Microsoft Congressional Stock Trading
Members of Congress have traded $MSFT stock 36 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 17 have been purchases and 19 have been sales.
Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MSFT stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:
- REPRESENTATIVE DAVID TAYLOR has traded it 5 times. They made 5 purchases worth up to $75,000 on 02/09, 01/29, 01/16, 01/08 and 0 sales.
- REPRESENTATIVE JOHN MCGUIRE has traded it 2 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $15,000 on 01/21 and 1 sale worth up to $15,000 on 01/30.
- REPRESENTATIVE THOMAS H. KEAN, JR. sold up to $15,000 on 01/23.
- SENATOR MARKWAYNE MULLIN has traded it 2 times. They made 2 purchases worth up to $750,000 on 12/29, 11/03 and 0 sales.
- REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. has traded it 4 times. They made 3 purchases worth up to $130,000 on 11/18, 11/12, 10/09 and 1 sale worth up to $50,000 on 12/19.
- REPRESENTATIVE JULIE JOHNSON has traded it 2 times. They made 0 purchases and 2 sales worth up to $30,000 on 12/18, 11/13.
- SENATOR JOHN BOOZMAN purchased up to $15,000 on 12/17.
- SENATOR SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO has traded it 4 times. They made 0 purchases and 4 sales worth up to $130,000 on 12/16, 10/29, 10/22, 09/18.
- REPRESENTATIVE CLEO FIELDS has traded it 2 times. They made 2 purchases worth up to $30,000 on 12/11 and 0 sales.
- REPRESENTATIVE DWIGHT EVANS sold up to $15,000 on 11/21.
- REPRESENTATIVE RICHARD MCCORMICK has traded it 2 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $15,000 on 11/05 and 1 sale worth up to $15,000 on 09/18.
- REPRESENTATIVE LISA C. MCCLAIN has traded it 4 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $50,000 on 10/30 and 3 sales worth up to $115,000 on 10/31, 10/30, 09/11.
- REPRESENTATIVE KEVIN HERN has traded it 2 times. They made 0 purchases and 2 sales worth up to $100,000 on 10/28, 09/26.
- REPRESENTATIVE MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE purchased up to $15,000 on 10/24.
- SENATOR TOMMY TUBERVILLE sold up to $50,000 on 10/07.
- REPRESENTATIVE VAL T. HOYLE sold up to $50,000 on 09/23.
- SENATOR SHELDON WHITEHOUSE sold up to $50,000 on 09/04.
To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.
Microsoft Hedge Fund Activity
We have seen 2,771 institutional investors add shares of Microsoft stock to their portfolio, and 2,790 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.
Here are some of the largest recent moves:
- UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 178,000,181 shares (-74.7%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $86,084,447,535
- CARDANO RISK MANAGEMENT B.V. added 21,231,333 shares (+908.5%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $10,267,897,265
- GATES FOUNDATION TRUST removed 17,000,000 shares (-64.9%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $8,805,150,000
- VANGUARD GROUP INC added 15,955,898 shares (+2.3%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $7,716,591,390
- CORIENT PRIVATE WEALTH LLC added 12,492,886 shares (+234.4%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $6,041,809,527
- JPMORGAN CHASE & CO removed 11,048,048 shares (-7.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $5,343,056,973
- BLACKROCK, INC. added 10,037,437 shares (+1.7%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $4,854,305,281
To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.
Microsoft Government Contracts
We have seen $375,422,421 of award payments to $MSFT over the last year.
Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:
- MICROSOFT AZURE STRATUS HSTXXX0000002144 93A34F: $42,604,669
- ARMY CYBER COMMANDS MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES AND MICROSOFT PREMIER SUPPORT: $33,839,349
- MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES (MCS) AND UNIFIED SUPPORT FOR THE U.S. NAVY / PROGRAM EXECUTIVE OFFICE DIGITA...: $33,622,455
- MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES (MCS) AND MICROSOFT PREMIER SUPPORT (MPS) FOR THE UNITED STATES MARINE CORPS ...: $31,639,788
- THE ENTERPRISE CLOUD MANAGEMENT AGENCY (ECMA) REQUIRES MICROSOFT AZURE CLOUD COMPUTING CAPABILITIES AT DEPA...: $29,924,141
To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard.
Microsoft Analyst Ratings
Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $MSFT in the last several months. We have seen 13 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.
Here are some recent analyst ratings:
- Piper Sandler issued a "Overweight" rating on 01/29/2026
- DA Davidson issued a "Buy" rating on 01/29/2026
- Citigroup issued a "Buy" rating on 01/21/2026
- Mizuho issued a "Outperform" rating on 01/21/2026
- TD Cowen issued a "Buy" rating on 01/20/2026
- Wedbush issued a "Outperform" rating on 12/22/2025
- JP Morgan issued a "Overweight" rating on 10/30/2025
To track analyst ratings and price targets for Microsoft, check out Quiver Quantitative's $MSFT forecast page.
Microsoft Price Targets
Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $MSFT recently. We have seen 25 analysts offer price targets for $MSFT in the last 6 months, with a median target of $600.0.
Here are some recent targets:
- Brad Reback from Stifel set a target price of $392.0 on 02/05/2026
- Tyler Radke from Citigroup set a target price of $635.0 on 01/30/2026
- Gil Luria from DA Davidson set a target price of $650.0 on 01/29/2026
- Kirk Materne from Evercore ISI Group set a target price of $580.0 on 01/29/2026
- Michael Turrin from Wells Fargo set a target price of $615.0 on 01/29/2026
- Dan Ives from Wedbush set a target price of $575.0 on 01/29/2026
- Patrick Colville from Scotiabank set a target price of $600.0 on 01/29/2026
This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.
