AI Spending Concerns: Recent chatter on social media has centered around Microsoft’s hefty capital expenditures, particularly in AI and cloud computing. Many users are questioning whether the massive investments, reportedly around $80 billion, will yield near-term profits. There’s a palpable unease as the stock has dropped 16% from its all-time high, with some pointing to fading AI hype.
Earnings Anticipation: Discussions are also heating up ahead of the company’s upcoming earnings report on January 28. Some express cautious optimism, citing potential rebounds driven by Azure and cloud spending, while others warn of a possible death cross in technical charts. The split in opinions keeps the conversation lively and tense.
Analyst Confidence: A few posts highlight positive analyst outlooks, with some firms maintaining high price targets and viewing Microsoft as a strong long-term play. Despite recent slides, these notes of confidence in software and cloud upgrades are sparking debates about whether the current dip is a buying opportunity. The mix of hope and skepticism is striking.
Note: This discussion summary was generated from an AI condensation of post data.
Microsoft Insider Trading Activity
Microsoft insiders have traded $MSFT stock on the open market 12 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 12 have been sales.
Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MSFT stock by insiders over the last 6 months:
- SATYA NADELLA (Chief Executive Officer) has made 0 purchases and 6 sales selling 149,205 shares for an estimated $75,315,120.
- BRADFORD L SMITH (Vice Chair and President) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 38,500 shares for an estimated $19,967,707.
- JUDSON ALTHOFF (CEO Microsoft Commercial) sold 12,750 shares for an estimated $6,266,829
- TAKESHI NUMOTO (EVP, Chief Marketing Officer) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 7,700 shares for an estimated $3,921,858.
To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.
Microsoft Revenue
Microsoft had revenues of $77.7B in Q1 2026. This is an increase of 18.43% from the same period in the prior year.
You can track MSFT financials on Quiver Quantitative's MSFT stock page.
Microsoft Congressional Stock Trading
Members of Congress have traded $MSFT stock 39 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 18 have been purchases and 21 have been sales.
Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MSFT stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:
- REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. has traded it 5 times. They made 4 purchases worth up to $145,000 on 11/18, 11/12, 10/09, 08/05 and 1 sale worth up to $50,000 on 12/19.
- REPRESENTATIVE JULIE JOHNSON has traded it 4 times. They made 0 purchases and 4 sales worth up to $60,000 on 12/18, 11/13, 08/14, 07/29.
- SENATOR JOHN BOOZMAN purchased up to $15,000 on 12/17.
- SENATOR SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO has traded it 5 times. They made 0 purchases and 5 sales worth up to $145,000 on 12/16, 10/29, 10/22, 09/18, 07/18.
- REPRESENTATIVE CLEO FIELDS has traded it 8 times. They made 8 purchases worth up to $1,230,000 on 12/11, 08/01, 07/29, 07/28 and 0 sales.
- REPRESENTATIVE DWIGHT EVANS sold up to $15,000 on 11/21.
- REPRESENTATIVE RICHARD MCCORMICK has traded it 2 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $15,000 on 11/05 and 1 sale worth up to $15,000 on 09/18.
- SENATOR MARKWAYNE MULLIN purchased up to $500,000 on 11/03.
- REPRESENTATIVE LISA C. MCCLAIN has traded it 4 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $50,000 on 10/30 and 3 sales worth up to $115,000 on 10/31, 10/30, 09/11.
- REPRESENTATIVE KEVIN HERN has traded it 2 times. They made 0 purchases and 2 sales worth up to $100,000 on 10/28, 09/26.
- REPRESENTATIVE MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE purchased up to $15,000 on 10/24.
- SENATOR TOMMY TUBERVILLE sold up to $50,000 on 10/07.
- REPRESENTATIVE VAL T. HOYLE sold up to $50,000 on 09/23.
- SENATOR SHELDON WHITEHOUSE sold up to $50,000 on 09/04.
- REPRESENTATIVE THOMAS H. KEAN, JR. sold up to $15,000 on 08/25.
- SENATOR ANGUS S. KING JR. purchased up to $15,000 on 07/21.
To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.
Microsoft Hedge Fund Activity
We have seen 2,700 institutional investors add shares of Microsoft stock to their portfolio, and 2,599 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.
Here are some of the largest recent moves:
- UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC added 109,161,832 shares (+1099.9%) to their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $56,540,370,884
- KINGSTONE CAPITAL PARTNERS TEXAS, LLC removed 90,533,781 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $46,891,971,868
- GATES FOUNDATION TRUST removed 17,000,000 shares (-64.9%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $8,805,150,000
- BLACKROCK, INC. added 10,283,002 shares (+1.8%) to their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $5,326,080,885
- GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC added 7,841,111 shares (+16.8%) to their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $4,061,303,442
- SG AMERICAS SECURITIES, LLC added 6,617,245 shares (+5138.7%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $3,200,232,026
- DANSKE BANK A/S removed 5,674,423 shares (-97.2%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $2,939,067,392
To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.
Microsoft Government Contracts
We have seen $385,253,178 of award payments to $MSFT over the last year.
Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:
- MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES (MCS) AND UNIFIED SUPPORT FOR THE U.S. NAVY / PROGRAM EXECUTIVE OFFICE DIGITA...: $37,515,594
- MICROSOFT AZURE STRATUS HSTXXX0000002144 93A34F: $36,604,669
- ARMY CYBER COMMANDS MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES AND MICROSOFT PREMIER SUPPORT: $34,490,868
- MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES (MCS) AND MICROSOFT PREMIER SUPPORT (MPS) FOR THE UNITED STATES MARINE CORPS ...: $34,135,435
- THE ENTERPRISE CLOUD MANAGEMENT AGENCY (ECMA) REQUIRES MICROSOFT AZURE CLOUD COMPUTING CAPABILITIES AT DEPA...: $31,740,635
To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard.
Microsoft Analyst Ratings
Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $MSFT in the last several months. We have seen 23 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.
Here are some recent analyst ratings:
- Wedbush issued a "Outperform" rating on 12/22/2025
- Piper Sandler issued a "Overweight" rating on 10/30/2025
- Evercore ISI Group issued a "Outperform" rating on 10/30/2025
- Bernstein issued a "Outperform" rating on 10/30/2025
- Citigroup issued a "Buy" rating on 10/30/2025
- Raymond James issued a "Outperform" rating on 10/30/2025
- Wells Fargo issued a "Overweight" rating on 10/30/2025
To track analyst ratings and price targets for Microsoft, check out Quiver Quantitative's $MSFT forecast page.
Microsoft Price Targets
Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $MSFT recently. We have seen 27 analysts offer price targets for $MSFT in the last 6 months, with a median target of $640.0.
Here are some recent targets:
- Raimo Lenschow from Barclays set a target price of $610.0 on 01/12/2026
- Michael Turrin from Wells Fargo set a target price of $665.0 on 01/08/2026
- Daniel Ives from Wedbush set a target price of $625.0 on 12/22/2025
- Gil Luria from DA Davidson set a target price of $650.0 on 12/04/2025
- Alex Haissl from Rothschild & Co set a target price of $500.0 on 11/18/2025
- William Power from Baird set a target price of $600.0 on 11/14/2025
- Kirk Materne from Evercore ISI Group set a target price of $640.0 on 10/30/2025
This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.
