Historic Drawdown: Social media erupted as Microsoft shares notched a third straight weekly close below the 200-week moving average, unseen in over 13 years. Investors flagged the pullback's severity—worse than 2022 despite surging revenues—pinning blame on hefty AI capital expenditures.
Analyst Optimism: Bullish voices countered with Bernstein's reiterated Outperform rating and $641 price target, positing AI capex fears as a potential bull catalyst. Discussions highlighted Azure growth poised for H2 reacceleration amid compressed valuations. Many see a margin of safety for patient buyers.
Innovation Edge: Chatter also swirled around Copilot enhancements inspired by cutting-edge AI agents across Microsoft 365. Microsoft stood out as resilient among peers, buoyed by incumbency and bundling moats. Debates intensified on whether the dip signals a prime entry or deeper trouble ahead.
Note: This discussion summary was generated from an AI condensation of post data.
Microsoft Insider Trading Activity
Microsoft insiders have traded $MSFT stock on the open market 6 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 5 have been sales.
Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MSFT stock by insiders over the last 6 months:
- BRADFORD L SMITH (Vice Chair and President) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 38,500 shares for an estimated $19,967,707.
- JUDSON ALTHOFF (CEO Microsoft Commercial) sold 12,750 shares for an estimated $6,266,829
- KATHLEEN T HOGAN (EVP, Strategy) sold 12,320 shares for an estimated $5,045,642
- JOHN W STANTON purchased 5,000 shares for an estimated $1,986,750
- TAKESHI NUMOTO (EVP, Chief Marketing Officer) sold 2,850 shares for an estimated $1,364,352
To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.
Microsoft Revenue
Microsoft had revenues of $81.3B in Q2 2026. This is an increase of 16.72% from the same period in the prior year.
You can track MSFT financials on Quiver Quantitative's MSFT stock page.
Microsoft Congressional Stock Trading
Members of Congress have traded $MSFT stock 41 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 25 have been purchases and 16 have been sales.
Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MSFT stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:
- SENATOR JOHN FETTERMAN has traded it 2 times. They made 2 purchases worth up to $30,000 on 03/30, 03/27 and 0 sales.
- REPRESENTATIVE RICHARD MCCORMICK has traded it 3 times. They made 3 purchases worth up to $45,000 on 03/19, 11/05 and 0 sales.
- REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. has traded it 5 times. They made 3 purchases worth up to $165,000 on 03/13, 11/18, 11/12 and 2 sales worth up to $100,000 on 02/10, 12/19.
- REPRESENTATIVE CLEO FIELDS has traded it 4 times. They made 4 purchases worth up to $60,000 on 03/12, 12/11 and 0 sales.
- REPRESENTATIVE DAVID TAYLOR has traded it 6 times. They made 6 purchases worth up to $90,000 on 02/26, 02/09, 01/29, 01/16, 01/08 and 0 sales.
- SENATOR JOHN BOOZMAN has traded it 2 times. They made 2 purchases worth up to $30,000 on 02/13, 12/17 and 0 sales.
- SENATOR ANGUS S. KING JR. sold up to $15,000 on 02/13.
- REPRESENTATIVE JOSH GOTTHEIMER sold up to $15,000 on 02/02.
- REPRESENTATIVE JULIA LETLOW sold up to $15,000 on 02/02.
- REPRESENTATIVE JOHN MCGUIRE has traded it 2 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $15,000 on 01/21 and 1 sale worth up to $15,000 on 01/30.
- REPRESENTATIVE THOMAS H. KEAN, JR. sold up to $15,000 on 01/23.
- SENATOR MARKWAYNE MULLIN has traded it 2 times. They made 2 purchases worth up to $750,000 on 12/29, 11/03 and 0 sales.
- REPRESENTATIVE JULIE JOHNSON has traded it 2 times. They made 0 purchases and 2 sales worth up to $30,000 on 12/18, 11/13.
- SENATOR SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO has traded it 3 times. They made 0 purchases and 3 sales worth up to $80,000 on 12/16, 10/29, 10/22.
- REPRESENTATIVE DWIGHT EVANS sold up to $15,000 on 11/21.
- REPRESENTATIVE LISA C. MCCLAIN has traded it 3 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $50,000 on 10/30 and 2 sales worth up to $100,000 on 10/31, 10/30.
- REPRESENTATIVE KEVIN HERN sold up to $50,000 on 10/28.
- REPRESENTATIVE MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE purchased up to $15,000 on 10/24.
To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.
Microsoft Hedge Fund Activity
We have seen 2,758 institutional investors add shares of Microsoft stock to their portfolio, and 2,654 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.
Here are some of the largest recent moves:
- UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 178,000,181 shares (-74.7%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $86,084,447,535
- AUTO-OWNERS INSURANCE CO removed 59,992,081 shares (-99.8%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $21,886,910,911
- CARDANO RISK MANAGEMENT B.V. added 21,231,333 shares (+908.5%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $10,267,897,265
- VANGUARD GROUP INC added 15,955,898 shares (+2.3%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $7,716,591,390
- CORIENT PRIVATE WEALTH LLC added 12,492,886 shares (+234.4%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $6,041,809,527
- JPMORGAN CHASE & CO removed 11,048,048 shares (-7.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $5,343,056,973
- BLACKROCK, INC. added 10,037,437 shares (+1.7%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $4,854,305,281
To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.
Microsoft Government Contracts
We have seen $403,918,070 of award payments to $MSFT over the last year.
Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:
- MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES (MCS) AND UNIFIED SUPPORT FOR THE U.S. NAVY / PROGRAM EXECUTIVE OFFICE DIGITA...: $66,489,249
- MICROSOFT AZURE STRATUS HSTXXX0000002144 93A34F: $36,680,310
- MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES (MCS) AND MICROSOFT PREMIER SUPPORT (MPS) FOR THE UNITED STATES MARINE CORPS ...: $31,125,253
- ARMY CYBER COMMANDS MICROSOFT CONSULTING SERVICES AND MICROSOFT PREMIER SUPPORT: $22,811,133
- THE ENTERPRISE CLOUD MANAGEMENT AGENCY (ECMA) REQUIRES MICROSOFT AZURE CLOUD COMPUTING CAPABILITIES AT DEPA...: $21,498,806
To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard.
Microsoft Analyst Ratings
Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $MSFT in the last several months. We have seen 12 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.
Here are some recent analyst ratings:
- DA Davidson issued a "Buy" rating on 01/29/2026
- Piper Sandler issued a "Overweight" rating on 01/29/2026
- Citigroup issued a "Buy" rating on 01/21/2026
- Mizuho issued a "Outperform" rating on 01/21/2026
- TD Cowen issued a "Buy" rating on 01/20/2026
- Wedbush issued a "Outperform" rating on 12/22/2025
- JP Morgan issued a "Overweight" rating on 10/30/2025
To track analyst ratings and price targets for Microsoft, check out Quiver Quantitative's $MSFT forecast page.
Microsoft Price Targets
Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $MSFT recently. We have seen 27 analysts offer price targets for $MSFT in the last 6 months, with a median target of $600.0.
Here are some recent targets:
- Stefan Slowinski from BNP Paribas set a target price of $556.0 on 04/10/2026
- Karl Keirstead from UBS set a target price of $510.0 on 03/25/2026
- Tal Liani from B of A Securities set a target price of $500.0 on 03/24/2026
- Brad Reback from Stifel set a target price of $392.0 on 02/05/2026
- Tyler Radke from Citigroup set a target price of $635.0 on 01/30/2026
- Rishi Jaluria from RBC Capital set a target price of $640.0 on 01/29/2026
- Hannah Rudoff from Piper Sandler set a target price of $600.0 on 01/29/2026
This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.
