Kalshi has reported 7,609 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will the government be shut down on January 31?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.
The market currently is implying a 31% chance for "Shut down", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 31% probability.
If the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management contains a notice that the government is shut down on January 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET due to a lapse in appropriations, then the market resolves to Yes.
In total, this market has seen a volume of 97,354 transactions since it was first opened on November 11, 2025. There are 56,459 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 18,164,739 contracts.
Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 167957)
- Nicolás Maduro out in November? (24h volume: 66483)
- Nicolás Maduro out this year? (24h volume: 54056)
- Donald Trump out this year? (24h volume: 53341)
- Will the USD/JPY open price be above 158.499 at Nov 24, 2025 at 10am EST? (24h volume: 41210)
- Will Trump next nominate Christopher Waller as Fed Chair? (24h volume: 36724)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.10? (24h volume: 32596)
- Wil Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Maine? (24h volume: 31644)
- Will Thomas Massie be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? (24h volume: 31232)
- Will the Fed cut rates 3 times? (24h volume: 27160)
