Kalshi has reported 42,283 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will Yes outperform the final VoteHub average margin of victory (“spread”) at 10:00 AM ET on Nov 4, 2025 in California's Prop 50 referendum?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.
The market currently is implying a 98% chance for "Yes", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 98% probability.
If Yes on Prop 50's margin of victory outperforms the final VoteHub average margin of victory (Yes minus No) at 10:00 AM ET on Nov 4, 2025 in the California Proposition 50 in California, then the market resolves to Yes.
In total, this market has seen a volume of 94,653 transactions since it was first opened on October 25, 2025. There are 31,417 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 179,438 contracts.
Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Will a representative of the Andrew Cuomo party win the NYC Mayor race in 2025? (24h volume: 12241843)
- Will Jack Ciattarelli win the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election? (24h volume: 3418904)
- Margin of victory for Zohran Mamdani in the Mayoral Election? (24h volume: 1645454)
- What percent of the vote will Zohran Mamdani get in NYC Mayoral Election? (24h volume: 1405871)
- Will Democrats win VA Governor AND VA House of Delegates AND NJ Governor AND Mamdani wins NYC Mayor all win their elections? (24h volume: 1253289)
- Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia attorney general election? (24h volume: 933117)
- Will the Department of Education be eliminated before Jan 1, 2026? (24h volume: 861503)
- Will Zohran Mamdani receive between 50% and 59.99% of the popular vote in New York City? (24h volume: 743008)
- Will Tesla shareholders approve Elon Musk's new compensation package at the next annual shareholder meeting? (24h volume: 657879)
- Will Mikie Sherrill win by 10 to 11.99 percentage points in New Jersey? (24h volume: 627941)
