Kalshi has reported 65,024 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will John Bolton be arrested before Jan 2026?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.
The market currently is implying a 98% chance for "Before Jan 2026", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 98% probability.
If John Bolton is arrested before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
In total, this market has seen a volume of 113,336 transactions since it was first opened on August 25, 2025. There are 66,559 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 2,795,938 contracts.
Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Will Ro Khanna be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party? (24h volume: 350000)
- Will a representative of the Democratic party win the NYC Mayor race in 2025? (24h volume: 345823)
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 242600)
- Will the President sign above 0 Executive Orders between Oct 12, 2025 and Oct 19, 2025? (24h volume: 176399)
- Will the Republican party win the governorship in New Jersey (24h volume: 142660)
- Will the federal government shut down for more than 60 days? (24h volume: 118761)
- Who will President Trump pardon before Jan 1, 2026? (24h volume: 79153)
- Will the Republican party win the governorship in Virginia (24h volume: 67345)
- Will John Bolton be arrested before Jan 2026? (24h volume: 65024)
- Will Curtis Sliwa drop out of the NYC Mayoral race? (24h volume: 60218)
