Kalshi has reported 25,469 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “How many deportations in Trump's first year?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.
The market currently is implying a 98% chance for "At least 250,000", which is up from yesterday, when the market implied a 79% probability.
If there are at least 250,000 removals or expulsions from the United States by ICE in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
In total, this market has seen a volume of 272,803 transactions since it was first opened on December 05, 2024. There are 80,019 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 30,391,623 contracts.
Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Will the federal government shut down for more than 43 days? (24h volume: 1905713)
- Will the federal government shut down for fewer than 92 days? (24h volume: 889157)
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their December 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 650675)
- Will Katie WIlson win the election for the Mayor of Seattle in 2025? (24h volume: 125361)
- Will Mikie Sherrill outperform the final Real Clear Polling average in the 2025 New Jersey governor election? (24h volume: 84889)
- Will the Fed cut rates 4 times? (24h volume: 81662)
- Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? (24h volume: 48057)
- Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue? (24h volume: 47210)
- Margin of victory for Zohran Mamdani in the Mayoral Election? (24h volume: 44921)
- Will the House vote on an omnibus spending bill, minibus, or government-wide continuing resolution (CR)? (24h volume: 40517)
