Kalshi has reported 16,426 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will Abigail Spanberger outperform the final Real Clear Polling average in the 2025 Virginia Governor election?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.
The market currently is implying a 99% chance for "Yes", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 99% probability.
If Abigail Spanberger's margin of victory overperforms that of the final Real Clear Polling average margin of victory (“spread”) at 10:00 AM ET on Nov 4, 2025 in the 2025 Virginia Governor election, then the market resolves to Yes.
In total, this market has seen a volume of 182,014 transactions since it was first opened on October 13, 2025. There are 50,250 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 2,213,263 contracts.
Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Will the federal government shut down for more than 43 days? (24h volume: 1905713)
- Will the federal government shut down for fewer than 92 days? (24h volume: 889157)
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their December 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 650675)
- Will Katie WIlson win the election for the Mayor of Seattle in 2025? (24h volume: 125361)
- Will Mikie Sherrill outperform the final Real Clear Polling average in the 2025 New Jersey governor election? (24h volume: 84889)
- Will the Fed cut rates 4 times? (24h volume: 81662)
- Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? (24h volume: 48057)
- Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue? (24h volume: 47210)
- Margin of victory for Zohran Mamdani in the Mayoral Election? (24h volume: 44921)
- Will the House vote on an omnibus spending bill, minibus, or government-wide continuing resolution (CR)? (24h volume: 40517)
