Marathon Petroleum jumps as energy and refining names rally amid oil-market shock

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is up 4.2% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: MPC appears to be moving with a broader refiner/energy bid tied to a sharp upswing in crude and refined-product pricing expectations after recent Middle East-related supply disruptions. Investors may also be leaning on MPC’s already-strong momentum and the company’s recent operational update that reinforced cash-generation and capital-return capacity.

Details:

Oil prices have been volatile and recently surged after a major geopolitical disruption threatened physical flows and tightened near-term supply expectations, lifting sentiment across U.S. energy equities.

MPC’s most recent quarterly materials highlighted strong refining performance and provided 2026 operational planning items (including utilization and capital spending parameters), which can frame expectations for free cash flow if margins stay firm.

Momentum-focused screens highlighted MPC’s recent multi-week outperformance, which can attract incremental inflows during sector-wide rallies.

This could also reflect investors positioning for stronger crack spreads and product tightness if refinery utilization stays constrained while demand holds up.

Sources:

Rigzone, Marathon Petroleum investor presentation, Zacks

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$MPC Insider Trading Activity

$MPC insiders have traded $MPC stock on the open market 1 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MPC stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

MICHAEL A II HENSCHEN (Ex VP, Refining) sold 5,289 shares for an estimated $1,070,070

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$MPC Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 691 institutional investors add shares of $MPC stock to their portfolio, and 800 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 4,399,824 shares (-77.3%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $715,543,377
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP removed 2,164,683 shares (-23.1%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $352,042,396
CAPITAL WEALTH PLANNING, LLC added 1,495,097 shares (+49392.0%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $243,147,625
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC removed 1,339,626 shares (-90.3%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $217,863,376
QUBE RESEARCH & TECHNOLOGIES LTD added 1,110,161 shares (+237.6%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $180,545,483
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ removed 1,109,013 shares (-35.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $180,358,784
ALYESKA INVESTMENT GROUP, L.P. removed 785,433 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $127,734,968

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$MPC Government Contracts

We have seen $402,204,811 of award payments to $MPC over the last year.

Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:

8511258088!DISTILLATE,NAVAL: $31,876,790
8511343326!DISTILLATE,NAVAL: $21,817,614
8511470123!DISTILLATE,NAVAL: $14,530,587
8511695173!DISTILLATE,NAVAL: $14,326,557
8511665280!TURBINE FUEL,AVIATION: $11,084,018

To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard.

$MPC Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $MPC stock 1 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MPC stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE DAVID TAYLOR sold up to $15,000 on 02/26.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$MPC Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $MPC in the last several months. We have seen 5 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Barclays issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/17/2025
Wells Fargo issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/05/2025
Raymond James issued a "Outperform" rating on 10/17/2025
Scotiabank issued a "Sector Outperform" rating on 10/09/2025
UBS issued a "Buy" rating on 09/26/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $MPC, check out Quiver Quantitative's $MPC forecast page.

$MPC Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $MPC recently. We have seen 11 analysts offer price targets for $MPC in the last 6 months, with a median target of $205.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Vikram Bagri from Citigroup set a target price of $210.0 on 02/09/2026
Phillip Jungwirth from BMO Capital set a target price of $225.0 on 02/09/2026
Sam Margolin from Wells Fargo set a target price of $217.0 on 02/04/2026
Nitin Kumar from Mizuho set a target price of $205.0 on 01/13/2026
Theresa Chen from Barclays set a target price of $194.0 on 01/13/2026
Ryan Todd from Piper Sandler set a target price of $184.0 on 01/08/2026
Justin Jenkins from Raymond James set a target price of $203.0 on 10/17/2025

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.