U.S. banking giants are set to report a decline in fourth-quarter profits, largely due to increased reserves for souring loans and higher payouts to depositors. Analysts from Goldman Sachs (GS) forecast a 10% decrease in the largest banks' net interest income (NII) and a 15% fall in trading revenue. This downturn is expected to impact major players like JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC), all of which are preparing to release their quarterly and annual financial results.
The banks are grappling with the dual challenges of setting aside more funds to cover potential loan defaults and offering higher interest rates to retain depositors. These factors are predicted to compress profits significantly. For instance, Bank of America's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to drop by 23%, while Citigroup and Morgan Stanley (MS) are projected to see a 25% and 17% decrease in EPS, respectively. Wells Fargo might experience a slight earnings improvement due to reduced regulatory order-related expenses.
Market Overview:
-US banks brace for a dismal Q4 earnings season, with profits expected to shrink as souring loans loom and deposit enticements drain margins.
-Net interest income (NII) forecast to nosedive 10% on average, while trading revenue suffers a projected 15% decline.
-JPM, BAC, C, and WFC report results Friday, facing investor scrutiny alongside sweeping overhauls and new CEO debuts.
Key Points:
-Loan default concerns cast a shadow, prompting banks to boost reserves and potentially curtail future lending.
-Competition for deposits escalates, pushing up payouts and eating into profits.
-Analyst estimates predict EPS drops for BAC, C, and MS, with only WFC bucking the trend due to cost-cutting efforts.
Looking Ahead:
-Citigroup's restructuring and Morgan Stanley's new CEO strategy update will be under the microscope.
-Macroeconomic uncertainty and the trajectory of Fed interest rate cuts remain critical unknowns.
-H1 2024 may see NII decline extend as stricter lending standards and potential consumer stress grip the market.
-Regulatory changes under Basel endgame and the upcoming US election are wildcards influencing future bank behaviors.
Apart from financial results, Citigroup's ongoing overhaul and Morgan Stanley's new strategic direction under CEO Ted Pick will be closely monitored by investors. These updates are crucial as banks navigate an environment of macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly concerning the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. This uncertainty, alongside increasing delinquencies among lower-income customers, poses a significant concern for the banks' loan portfolios.
Despite a projected decline in fourth-quarter earnings, overall bank profits in 2023 showed resilience, with a 5% growth for the largest banks against a 5% decline for regional banks. However, the decrease in NII seen in the last quarter is expected to continue into the first half of 2024. Banks are also anticipated to be cautious with their capital, limiting share buybacks in preparation for potentially stricter regulatory requirements and the impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on the regulatory landscape.
