Intuitive Machines falls as dilution worries linger after $500M at-the-market equity program

Intuitive Machines (LUNR) is down 10.0% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The drop appears tied to continued investor concern about share dilution after the company set up an at-the-market (ATM) equity program that can sell up to $500 million of common stock over time. Even if the company does not immediately sell the full amount, the potential issuance can create a supply “overhang” that pressures shares in the near term.

Details:

Intuitive Machines filed a prospectus supplement outlining an ATM program for up to $500 million of Class A common stock, to be sold from time to time through multiple sales agents.

The filing describes sales occurring at prevailing market prices (including block or negotiated transactions), which can lead investors to discount the stock for potential ongoing issuance.

The prospectus supplement included an illustrative share count “after this offering” that assumes $500 million sold at an assumed price of $38.21 (the June 1, 2026 closing price cited in the document), highlighting the possible scale of dilution.

Separately, the stock’s elevated short interest (roughly 30.6 million shares, about 30.7% of float as of mid-May 2026) can amplify day-to-day moves as sentiment shifts.

Sources:

SEC, MarketBeat, StockTitan, Investing.com

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$LUNR Insider Trading Activity

$LUNR insiders have traded $LUNR stock on the open market 53 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 53 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $LUNR stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

STEPHEN J ALTEMUS (Chief Executive Officer) has made 0 purchases and 11 sales selling 3,100,554 shares for an estimated $52,291,308.
KAMAL SEYED GHAFFARIAN has made 0 purchases and 23 sales selling 993,363 shares for an estimated $26,584,084.
TIMOTHY PRICE II CRAIN (SVP & CTO) has made 0 purchases and 13 sales selling 731,673 shares for an estimated $12,587,712.
PETER MCGRATH (SVP and CFO) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 50,095 shares for an estimated $1,025,003.
WILLIAM JOHN JR LIQUORI sold 18,321 shares for an estimated $547,248
ANNA CHIARA JONES (SVP, CLO & Corporate Secretary) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 21,690 shares for an estimated $408,497.
STEVEN VONTUR (See Remarks) sold 4,343 shares for an estimated $75,724

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard. You can access data on insider stock transactions through the Quiver Quantitative API insider transaction endpoint.

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$LUNR Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 170 institutional investors add shares of $LUNR stock to their portfolio, and 134 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

CITADEL ADVISORS LLC added 3,610,261 shares (+10062.6%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $67,006,444
D. E. SHAW & CO., INC. added 3,486,509 shares (+3258.0%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $56,586,041
DEFIANCE ETFS, LLC added 2,085,244 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $38,702,128
LMR PARTNERS LLP added 1,984,126 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $36,825,378
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC added 1,934,000 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $35,895,040
STATE STREET CORP added 1,850,338 shares (+30.1%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $34,342,273
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC added 1,733,492 shares (+231.3%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $32,173,611

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Quiver Quantitative API 13F endpoint.

$LUNR Government Contracts

We have seen $84,139,677 of award payments to $LUNR over the last year.

Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:

COMMERCIAL LUNAR PAYLOAD SERVICES (CLPS): $11,690,000
NEAR SPACE NETWORK (NSN) SERVICES (SUBCATEGORY 2.2 GEO TO CIS-LUNAR RELAY): $9,000,000
JOINT EMERGENT TECHNOLOGY SUPPLYING ON-ORBIT NUCLEAR POWER (JETSON) LOW POWER: $8,245,000
PHASE E LROC CONTRACT AWARD: $3,625,000
THIS IS A FFP CONTRACT FOR NEXTSTEP2 APPENDIX R: LUNAR LOGISTICS AND MOBILITY STUDIES.: $1,936,780

To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard. You can access data on government contracts through the Quiver Quantitative API government contracts endpoint.

$LUNR Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $LUNR in the last several months. We have seen 3 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Roth Capital issued a "Buy" rating on 05/15/2026
Clear Street issued a "Buy" rating on 12/29/2025
Keybanc issued a "Overweight" rating on 12/19/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $LUNR, check out Quiver Quantitative's $LUNR forecast page.

$LUNR Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $LUNR recently. We have seen 8 analysts offer price targets for $LUNR in the last 6 months, with a median target of $34.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Suji Desilva from Roth Capital set a target price of $75.0 on 05/28/2026
Andres Sheppard from Cantor Fitzgerald set a target price of $43.0 on 05/19/2026
Mike Crawford from B. Riley Securities set a target price of $45.0 on 05/15/2026
Austin Moeller from Canaccord Genuity set a target price of $41.0 on 05/15/2026
Michael Leshock from Keybanc set a target price of $27.0 on 04/29/2026
Jonathan Siegmann from Stifel set a target price of $22.0 on 03/23/2026
Edison Yu from Deutsche Bank set a target price of $22.0 on 03/20/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.