EMCOR slides as strong Q4 results are overshadowed by 2026 outlook and margin expectations

EMCOR Group (EME) is down 7.1% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: EMCOR reported a strong quarter, but the initial full-year 2026 outlook appears to have come in “good, not great” versus elevated expectations after a big run in the stock. Investors may also be discounting parts of the headline profit because results included a notable one-time gain tied to the sale of the company’s U.K. operations. This looks consistent with a classic “sell-the-news” reaction after earnings.

Details:

EMCOR posted record fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of about $4.51 billion and adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted EPS of $7.19.

For full-year 2026, EMCOR guided to revenue of $17.75 billion to $18.50 billion and diluted EPS of $27.25 to $29.25, alongside an operating margin outlook of 9.0% to 9.4%.

Record remaining performance obligations were about $13.25 billion (up roughly 31% year over year), which supports demand visibility but did not prevent the near-term selloff.

GAAP EPS was boosted by a gain related to the sale of EMCOR’s United Kingdom operations, which can make headline earnings look stronger than underlying run-rate profitability.

Sources:

EMCOR Investor Relations (press release), Investing.com, The Associated Press

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$EME Insider Trading Activity

$EME insiders have traded $EME stock on the open market 2 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 2 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $EME stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

ROBIN A WALKER-LEE sold 1,325 shares for an estimated $897,316
ROBERT PETER LIND (VP and Controller) sold 0 shares for an estimated $200

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$EME Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 540 institutional investors add shares of $EME stock to their portfolio, and 542 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 1,265,396 shares (-76.1%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $774,156,618
NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO added 669,105 shares (+132234.2%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $409,351,747
BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/ added 453,876 shares (+425.8%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $277,676,798
VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC added 327,606 shares (+34.5%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $200,426,074
SELECT EQUITY GROUP, L.P. removed 273,264 shares (-37.1%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $167,180,182
EARNEST PARTNERS LLC added 256,156 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $156,713,679
FMR LLC removed 215,928 shares (-8.2%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $132,102,591

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$EME Government Contracts

We have seen $110,602,129 of award payments to $EME over the last year.

Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:

To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard.

$EME Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $EME stock 4 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 3 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $EME stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE APRIL MCCLAIN DELANEY sold up to $15,000 on 11/17.
REPRESENTATIVE LISA C. MCCLAIN has traded it 3 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $15,000 on 10/30 and 2 sales worth up to $30,000 on 10/31, 10/30.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$EME Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $EME in the last several months. We have seen 2 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Stifel issued a "Buy" rating on 10/13/2025
William Blair issued a "Outperform" rating on 09/11/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $EME, check out Quiver Quantitative's $EME forecast page.

$EME Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $EME recently. We have seen 3 analysts offer price targets for $EME in the last 6 months, with a median target of $754.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Brian Brophy from Stifel set a target price of $754.0 on 01/26/2026
Brent Thielman from DA Davidson set a target price of $800.0 on 10/31/2025
Adam Bubes from Goldman Sachs set a target price of $675.0 on 10/08/2025

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.