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BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.

BBAI

BBAI: BigBear.ai Holdings Inc is a technology-led solutions organization, that provides both software and services to its customers. Its AI-powered decision intelligence solutions are leveraged in three markets; supply chains & logistics, autonomous systems, and cybersecurity. It operates in two segments; Cyber & Engineering segment provides high-end technology and management consulting services to its customers, focusing on cloud engineering and enterprise IT, cybersecurity, computer network operations, and wireless, systems engineering, as well as program planning, and Analytics segment provides high-end technology and consulting services to its customers, focusing on data computing and analytical solutions, including predictive and prescriptive analytics solutions.

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Quiver LogoOur Analysis
Posted: 7 months, 2 weeks ago // Feb. 15, 2023 4:30 p.m. UTC
Beyond Balloons: The Real Threats Brewing in the Bottom Half of the Globe

With the media and public fixated on the ongoing UFO encounters, it can be easy to lose sight of the larger picture. While it's yet to be determined the extent to which these UFO’s pose a threat, real ones are brewing, which the media have largely ignored.

Using marine vessel traffic and filtering the map only to show ‘research vessels' with Chinese or Russian national flags, we can see concentrations of ships scattered across the bottom half of the globe. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Antarctica, South Africa, and Argentina, to name a few:

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These vessels likely appear to the naked eye as nothing out of the ordinary. However, upon close analysis, a striking pattern emerges. Almost all the locations where we see concentrations of Chinese and Russian vessels happen to be the same places where China has (or plans to have) new satellite radar stations:

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China claims that these radar stations are for ‘Peaceful Space Observation’; some argue that the real reason is for a much more nefarious: Collecting information on the position and activity of U.S. military satellites.

It’s well known that both China and Russia can ‘take-out’ satellites. In 2007, China successfully conducted an anti-satellite missile test on one of its weather satellites. However, this was not a cause for alarm at the time, as China had limited capabilities in tracking and locating satellites. However, with China rapidly growing it's global footprint of ground radar stations, this may no longer be the case.

This potential reality is a consideriable threat to the Department of Defense, which are one of the largest users of satellites globally. Currently, a substantial amount of The Pentagon's current cyberinfrastructure is routed through satellites such as:
• Communication
• Unmanned-Arial-Vehicles
• Guidance Weapon Systems
• Early-Warning Missile Defense
• Navigation
• Surveillance/Observation

In light of this, the Pentagon has begun to take proactive steps to address the issue. As of this writing, the U.S. Space Force’s budget for FY 2023 is $24.5 billion, or $5 billion more than what Congress authorized for FY 2022. With this multi-billion-dollar influx of capital, many space-based companies are likely to benefit from anticipated government contracts to address this significant security concern, with one notable one being Redwire Corporation (RDW):

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Space infrastructure company, Redwire, is particularly interesting because on 12/6/2022, they announced a partnership with Mynaric (MYNA), and BigBear.ai (BBAI) for the joint development of an advanced satellite communication program sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). According to Pentagon officials, this project is an integral part of a larger space defense ecosystem that will be a top priority moving forward.

DARPA has a long history of being at the forefront of new technology endeavors, with many early-stage companies that receive sponsorships from them ending up with major successes. Case in point: iRobot Corporation (IRBT) received one of its first-ever grants from DARPA to help design robots for space exploration and military defense purposes.

Additionally, BigBear.ai, mentioned earlier, has already realized some of this new funding, having recently secured a 10-Year $900 Million IDIQ Contract awarded by the US Air Force, resulting in the stock jumping 400%+ YTD. While this in no means guarantees that Redwire will experience a similar windfall, it's a hard possibility to ignore.

Moreover, executives at Redwire seem to be optimistic about the company, with executives purchasing shares 11 different times over the last three months and reporting no sales.

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It’s important to note that although Redwire appears to have a bright future based on the information presented, investors seem more cautious of the company, with shares of Redwire down almost 75% since it’s IPO in 2021. A primary concern behind the price action is Redwire’s dwindling cash reserves which sit at just $7 million as of September 30, 2022, as they continue to pour money into research & development:

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This ongoing issue could prompt Redwire to issue more shares to raise capital to maintain operating costs, devaluating existing shares.

Like any company, Redwire Corporation faces numerous risks, however with the growing need for space infrastructure, billions in additional funding by Congress, new business partnerships, and confident executives buying as many shares as possible, we’ll be keeping a close eye on Redwire in the coming months.

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