Why Alcoa (AA) Stock Is Down Today

Alcoa (AA) is down 4.1% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The sell-off appears tied to a mixed reaction to Alcoa’s second-quarter results. While the company posted record quarterly revenue and sharply higher adjusted EBITDA, investors seemed more focused on its lower 2026 alumina production and shipment outlook, ongoing operational issues at Pinjarra, and the financing and dilution overhang tied to its recently announced South32 asset acquisition.

Details:

Alcoa reported second-quarter revenue of nearly $4.0 billion, adjusted earnings of $2.12 per share, and adjusted EBITDA of $901 million, showing strong sequential improvement.

The company cut its 2026 alumina production forecast to 9.5 million to 9.6 million metric tons and lowered its shipment forecast to 11.5 million to 11.6 million metric tons.

Management said the reduced outlook was primarily driven by instability at the Pinjarra refinery in Australia, which was worsened by gas supply disruptions linked to Cyclone Narelle.

Alcoa is also working through a $4.1 billion South32 transaction that includes cash, new shares, and planned debt financing, which could be adding pressure as investors weigh execution and dilution risk.

Sources:

Alcoa, SEC, Investing.com

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

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$AA Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 411 institutional investors add shares of $AA stock to their portfolio, and 241 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

FMR LLC added 7,920,191 shares (+160.6%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $525,346,269
BLACKROCK, INC. added 3,970,770 shares (+16.3%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $263,381,174
CASTLE HOOK PARTNERS LP removed 3,968,265 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $263,215,017
BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP removed 3,113,850 shares (-49.8%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $206,541,670
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP removed 2,955,506 shares (-25.5%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $196,038,712
MAPLE ROCK CAPITAL PARTNERS INC. removed 2,359,980 shares (-72.3%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $156,537,473
UBS GROUP AG removed 2,348,268 shares (-77.9%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $155,760,616

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Quiver Quantitative API 13F endpoint.

$AA Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $AA recently. We have seen 8 analysts offer price targets for $AA in the last 6 months, with a median target of $70.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Lawson Winder from B of A Securities set a target price of $51.0 on 07/09/2026
Timna Tanners from Wells Fargo set a target price of $72.0 on 07/09/2026
Bill Peterson from JP Morgan set a target price of $55.0 on 07/09/2026
Carlos De Alba from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $53.0 on 07/08/2026
Nick Giles from B. Riley Securities set a target price of $80.0 on 07/07/2026
Daniel Major from UBS set a target price of $68.0 on 06/30/2026
Katja Jancic from BMO Capital set a target price of $75.0 on 04/09/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.