Warrior Met Coal shares slide as Q1 results miss expectations despite Blue Creek-driven turnaround

Warrior Met Coal (HCC) is down 5.2% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The move appears tied to the market digesting the company’s first-quarter 2026 update, where profitability improved sharply year over year but key metrics still came in weaker than investors expected. A same-day analyst note also highlighted softer sales volumes and pricing as headwinds, which can weigh on sentiment in a cyclical coal name.

Details:

Warrior posted Q1 2026 net income of about $72.3 million (about $1.37 per diluted share), a swing from a loss in the year-ago quarter as Blue Creek ramped and costs benefited from mix and credits.

Despite the year-over-year improvement, the quarter’s overall performance was viewed as a miss versus consensus expectations, with weaker realized conditions and volumes cited as key drags.

The company reiterated near-term shareholder return plans, including a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.08 per share payable May 7, 2026, to shareholders of record May 1, 2026.

This could also reflect broader profit-taking after a strong prior run in the stock, as investors reassess steelmaking coal pricing and near-term shipment cadence.

Sources:

SEC (8-K), SEC (10-Q), Investing.com

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$HCC Insider Trading Activity

$HCC insiders have traded $HCC stock on the open market 5 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 5 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $HCC stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

WALTER J SCHELLER (CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 118,966 shares for an estimated $11,453,450.
KELLI K. GANT (See remarks) sold 10,000 shares for an estimated $1,000,000
BRIAN M CHOPIN (CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 2,083 shares for an estimated $170,227.

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard. You can access data on insider stock transactions through the Quiver Quantitative API.

$HCC Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 171 institutional investors add shares of $HCC stock to their portfolio, and 142 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

T. ROWE PRICE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, INC. removed 2,116,582 shares (-79.3%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $186,619,034
NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO added 987,453 shares (+2821294.3%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $87,063,731
L1 CAPITAL PTY LTD removed 458,915 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $40,462,535
BLACKROCK, INC. added 380,943 shares (+5.5%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $33,587,744
ENCOMPASS CAPITAL ADVISORS LLC added 375,791 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $33,133,492
BRIDGEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC removed 305,900 shares (-95.6%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $26,971,203
FIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP removed 293,510 shares (-41.9%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $25,878,776

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Quiver Quantitative API.

$HCC Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $HCC recently. We have seen 6 analysts offer price targets for $HCC in the last 6 months, with a median target of $102.5.

Here are some recent targets:

George Eadie from UBS set a target price of $105.0 on 03/27/2026
Alexander Hacking from Citigroup set a target price of $100.0 on 03/18/2026
Nick Giles from B. Riley Securities set a target price of $120.0 on 02/13/2026
Chris LaFemina from Jefferies set a target price of $120.0 on 01/20/2026
Katja Jancic from BMO Capital set a target price of $72.0 on 11/06/2025

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.