Verisk Estimates Winter Storm Fern Could Cause $4 Billion in Insured Losses

Verisk estimates Winter Storm Fern may cause up to $4 billion in insured losses across multiple U.S. states.

Quiver AI Summary

Verisk, a prominent data analytics and technology provider for the insurance industry, estimates that Winter Storm Fern could result in property and auto insured losses of up to USD 4 billion. This storm, which impacted numerous regions from January 23-26, brought freezing rain, heavy snow, and severe thunderstorms, with freeze-related damages projected to be the primary cause of losses. The storm affected states from Texas to Massachusetts, causing widespread power outages and significant damages, including up to 1 inch of icing and over 1 foot of snow in some areas. Early modeling indicates that at least 14 states may face insured losses exceeding USD 50 million each. If current loss estimates hold, Fern would rank as the third costliest U.S. winter storm on record. Verisk has utilized updates to its Winter Storm Model to enhance the accuracy of loss projections, particularly regarding the impacts of freezing rain and power outages. The company continues to monitor the situation for further developments.

Potential Positives

Verisk's estimation of USD 4 billion in insured losses from Winter Storm Fern highlights the company's expertise and leadership in catastrophe modeling and risk assessment.
The updated U.S. Winter Storm Model set to release in June 2026 introduces key enhancements, improving the company's ability to provide accurate loss predictions and better serve clients in the insurance industry.
The event's modeling showcases Verisk's commitment to innovation and adapting to changing climatic conditions, which strengthens client trust and demonstrates industry leadership.

Potential Negatives

Estimates of insured losses from Winter Storm Fern reaching USD 4 billion may indicate the company's vulnerability to large-scale catastrophic events and potential impacts on its financial stability.
The significant expected losses complicate the company's reputation as a reliable data analytics provider, as it may suggest limitations in accurately forecasting or mitigating such events.
Describing this storm as potentially the third costliest U.S. winter storm on record could raise concerns among clients about the effectiveness of their risk management strategies informed by Verisk's analytics.

FAQ

What were the estimated insured losses from Winter Storm Fern?

Insured industry losses from Winter Storm Fern could reach USD 4 billion, primarily from freeze impacts and additional losses from wind and snow.

Which regions were affected by Winter Storm Fern?

The storm impacted the Midwest, Northeast, South, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic, affecting states from Texas to Massachusetts.

How does Winter Storm Fern compare to other storms?

If estimates hold, Fern would be the third costliest U.S. winter storm on record, behind Winter Storm Elliott and Winter Storm Uri.

What new features does the updated U.S. Winter Storm Model include?

The model explicitly models freezing rain impacts and assesses U.S. power interconnections vulnerability, enhancing storm loss simulation capabilities.

How does Verisk support the insurance industry?

Verisk empowers clients to improve operating efficiency, underwriting, claims outcomes, and decision-making regarding global risks through data analytics and technology.

Disclaimer: This is an AI-generated summary of a press release distributed by GlobeNewswire. The model used to summarize this release may make mistakes. See the full release here.

$VRSK Insider Trading Activity

$VRSK insiders have traded $VRSK stock on the open market 14 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 4 have been purchases and 10 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $VRSK stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

NICHOLAS DAFFAN (Chief Information Officer) sold 5,420 shares for an estimated $1,436,300
LEE SHAVEL (Chief Executive Officer) has made 0 purchases and 4 sales selling 4,400 shares for an estimated $1,070,377.
ELIZABETH MANN (Chief Financial Officer) has made 0 purchases and 5 sales selling 1,500 shares for an estimated $360,444.
CHRISTOPHER JOHN PERRY purchased 1,000 shares for an estimated $259,800
JEFFREY J DAILEY purchased 500 shares for an estimated $108,515
GREGORY HENDRICK purchased 500 shares for an estimated $108,070
SABRA R. PURTILL purchased 450 shares for an estimated $98,077

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$VRSK Revenue

$VRSK had revenues of $768.3M in Q3 2025. This is an increase of 5.93% from the same period in the prior year.

You can track VRSK financials on Quiver Quantitative's VRSK stock page.

$VRSK Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $VRSK stock 6 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 5 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $VRSK stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE RICK LARSEN sold up to $15,000 on 01/07.
REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. has traded it 2 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $15,000 on 11/18 and 1 sale worth up to $15,000 on 12/19.
REPRESENTATIVE JULIE JOHNSON sold up to $15,000 on 11/03.
REPRESENTATIVE VAL T. HOYLE sold up to $15,000 on 09/23.
REPRESENTATIVE LISA C. MCCLAIN sold up to $15,000 on 08/13.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$VRSK Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 499 institutional investors add shares of $VRSK stock to their portfolio, and 506 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

FMR LLC removed 1,288,012 shares (-22.9%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $323,947,898
D. E. SHAW & CO., INC. added 1,273,460 shares (+196.4%) to their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $320,287,924
UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC added 1,066,659 shares (+66.1%) to their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $268,275,405
T. ROWE PRICE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, INC. removed 910,413 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $228,977,973
NUVEEN, LLC removed 789,156 shares (-64.5%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $198,480,625
TD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC removed 694,908 shares (-51.8%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $174,776,311
BLACKROCK, INC. added 676,355 shares (+5.5%) to their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $170,110,046

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$VRSK Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $VRSK in the last several months. We have seen 6 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 1 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Barclays issued a "Overweight" rating on 10/30/2025
RBC Capital issued a "Outperform" rating on 10/30/2025
JP Morgan issued a "Overweight" rating on 10/30/2025
Wells Fargo issued a "Overweight" rating on 10/30/2025
Rothschild & Co issued a "Sell" rating on 10/16/2025
Seaport Global issued a "Buy" rating on 10/01/2025
Wolfe Research issued a "Outperform" rating on 09/03/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $VRSK, check out Quiver Quantitative's $VRSK forecast page.

$VRSK Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $VRSK recently. We have seen 10 analysts offer price targets for $VRSK in the last 6 months, with a median target of $260.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $270.0 on 12/17/2025
Manav Patnaik from Barclays set a target price of $275.0 on 10/30/2025
Ashish Sabadra from RBC Capital set a target price of $250.0 on 10/30/2025
Andre Benjamin from Goldman Sachs set a target price of $239.0 on 10/30/2025
Jason Haas from Wells Fargo set a target price of $300.0 on 10/30/2025
David Motemaden from Evercore ISI Group set a target price of $250.0 on 10/30/2025
Andrew Steinerman from JP Morgan set a target price of $250.0 on 10/30/2025

Full Release

BOSTON, Feb. 03, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Verisk (Nasdaq: VRSK), a leading strategic data analytics and technology provider to the global insurance industry, estimates insured industry losses to property and auto from Winter Storm Fern could reach USD 4 billion, according to an initial analysis by the company’s Catastrophe and Risk Solutions group. Freeze impacts are expected to be the largest driver of losses, with supplemental losses from wind and snow.

Meteorological Summary

Winter Storm Fern affected the Midwest, Northeast, South, Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic from Jan. 23–26, bringing freezing rain, heavy snow and severe thunderstorms.

Freezing rain caused widespread power outages across Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia. The most severe icing — up to 1 inch — was reported from eastern Texas into northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Kentucky, increasing the likelihood of burst pipes.
Heavy snow fell across New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Illinois and Ohio, with accumulations topping 1 foot in several areas and cold temperatures hampering repair efforts.
Severe thunderstorms in southern Alabama and southern Georgia produced wind gusts above 60 mph, small hail and several tornado touchdowns.

Modeling Insights

Early results from Verisk’s updated U.S. Winter Storm Model indicate that 14 states, stretching from Texas to Massachusetts, may each exceed USD 50 million in insured losses. If estimates hold, Fern would be the third costliest U.S. winter storm on record, behind Winter Storm Elliott (2022) and Winter Storm Uri (2021).

Fern was unusually intense, driven by the collision of warm, moist subtropical air with extremely cold Arctic air. Loss estimation is further complicated by the storm’s varied regional impacts and ongoing power outages in the interior Southeast.

This event was modeled using the updated Verisk U.S. Winter Storm Model, scheduled for release in June 2026, and includes key enhancements, such as:

Explicit modeling of freezing rain and its downstream impacts on loss.
Captures the vulnerability of the U.S. power interconnections and potential for outages across the U.S., along with their knock-on effects on damage and loss.

These updates strengthen the model’s ability to simulate storms like Fern and better capture primary loss drivers.

Verisk continues to monitor impacts from this event and may provide additional information.

About Verisk
Verisk (Nasdaq: VRSK) is a leading strategic data analytics and technology partner to the global insurance industry. It empowers clients to strengthen operating efficiency, improve underwriting and claims outcomes, combat fraud and make informed decisions about global risks, including climate change, catastrophic events, sustainability and political issues. Through advanced data analytics, software, scientific research and deep industry knowledge, Verisk helps build global resilience for individuals, communities and businesses. With teams across more than 20 countries, Verisk consistently earns certification by Great Place to Work and fosters an inclusive culture where all team members feel they belong. For more, visit Verisk.com and the Verisk Newsroom .

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