Valero slides as oil prices fall and investors reassess refining outlook

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is down 6.7% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The drop appears tied to a broader pullback in the energy complex as crude prices slid sharply, which can pressure near-term sentiment on refining margins and downstream earnings expectations. Investors also continue to weigh operational uncertainty and potential higher spending tied to the Port Arthur incident, alongside the company’s evolving California footprint.

Details:

Crude oil weakened meaningfully in May 6 trading, which often spills over into refining equities as markets reprice the sector’s near-term profit outlook.

Weekly U.S. petroleum data showed crude inventories falling less than expected, a backdrop that can reinforce bearish price action in oil on the day.

Valero has flagged ongoing uncertainties related to its Port Arthur refinery situation and indicated it expects to update 2026 capital investment guidance once repair costs and timing are better defined.

Valero has also been transitioning its Benicia, California site away from fuel production units, which could add near-term noise around volumes and regional mix (even if longer-term strategy is clearer).

Sources:

SEC, Petroleum & Gas Journal, Oil & Gas Journal, StoneX, FX Leaders

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$VLO Insider Trading Activity

$VLO insiders have traded $VLO stock on the open market 4 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 4 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $VLO stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

ERIC A FISHER (SVP) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 8,711 shares for an estimated $1,987,772.
JASON W. FRASER (EVP & CFO) sold 9,933 shares for an estimated $1,728,539

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard. You can access data on insider stock transactions through the Quiver Quantitative API.

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$VLO Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 850 institutional investors add shares of $VLO stock to their portfolio, and 705 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 4,951,621 shares (-76.1%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $806,074,382
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ removed 2,002,124 shares (-16.6%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $325,925,765
AGF MANAGEMENT LTD added 1,625,435 shares (+5195.9%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $264,604,563
INVESCO LTD. removed 1,054,565 shares (-29.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $171,672,636
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO removed 958,664 shares (-38.4%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $156,060,912
FMR LLC added 868,566 shares (+14.7%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $141,393,859
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP added 783,581 shares (+48.5%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $127,559,150

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Quiver Quantitative API.

$VLO Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $VLO stock 1 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $VLO stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. sold up to $15,000 on 01/09.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard. You can access data on congressional stock trades through the Quiver Quantitative API.

$VLO Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $VLO in the last several months. We have seen 3 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Barclays issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/17/2025
Piper Sandler issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/14/2025
Wells Fargo issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/10/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $VLO, check out Quiver Quantitative's $VLO forecast page.

$VLO Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $VLO recently. We have seen 15 analysts offer price targets for $VLO in the last 6 months, with a median target of $255.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Vikram Bagri from Citigroup set a target price of $259.0 on 05/01/2026
Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen set a target price of $255.0 on 04/27/2026
Joe Laetsch from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $222.0 on 04/24/2026
Betty Zhang from Scotiabank set a target price of $226.0 on 04/22/2026
Doug Leggate from Wolfe Research set a target price of $203.0 on 04/21/2026
Ryan Todd from Piper Sandler set a target price of $263.0 on 04/08/2026
Theresa Chen from Barclays set a target price of $261.0 on 04/08/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.