Valero Energy (VLO) slides as crude-price shock and refinery-maintenance uncertainty weigh on refiners

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is down 3.7% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The selloff appears tied to a broader “oil shock” session in which crude spiked sharply on Middle East conflict headlines, raising concerns about inflation and demand destruction. For refiners like Valero, a rapid jump in crude can also pressure near-term profitability if product prices don’t keep pace, narrowing crack spreads.

Details:

Global markets were hit by a sharp surge in oil prices, which weighed on risk assets and raised stagflation concerns.

When crude input costs jump faster than gasoline and diesel prices, refiner margins can compress even if the energy complex is higher overall.

Valero disclosed it was focused on completing maintenance activity at its St. Charles refinery in Norco, Louisiana, with timing described as uncertain versus prior expectations, which can add near-term earnings/throughput uncertainty.

The stock had risen notably in the prior week as investors focused on improving refining conditions, which may have set up profit-taking on a volatile macro day.

Sources:

The Financial Express, ADVFN, Trefis, The Motley Fool

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$VLO Insider Trading Activity

$VLO insiders have traded $VLO stock on the open market 1 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $VLO stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

JASON W. FRASER (EVP & CFO) sold 9,933 shares for an estimated $1,728,539

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$VLO Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 714 institutional investors add shares of $VLO stock to their portfolio, and 777 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 4,951,621 shares (-76.1%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $806,074,382
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ removed 2,002,124 shares (-16.6%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $325,925,765
AGF MANAGEMENT LTD added 1,625,435 shares (+5195.9%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $264,604,563
INVESCO LTD. removed 1,054,565 shares (-29.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $171,672,636
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO removed 958,664 shares (-38.4%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $156,060,912
PACER ADVISORS, INC. added 915,782 shares (+2635.7%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $149,080,151
FMR LLC added 868,566 shares (+14.7%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $141,393,859

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$VLO Government Contracts

We have seen $37,489,901 of award payments to $VLO over the last year.

Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:

8511263933!TURBINE FUEL,AVIATION: $34,026,858
8511252268!TURBINE FUEL,AVIATION: $1,755,897
8511261694!TURBINE FUEL,AVIATION: $1,707,145

To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard.

$VLO Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $VLO stock 1 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $VLO stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. sold up to $15,000 on 01/09.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$VLO Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $VLO in the last several months. We have seen 6 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Barclays issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/17/2025
Piper Sandler issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/14/2025
Wells Fargo issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/10/2025
JP Morgan issued a "Overweight" rating on 10/24/2025
Raymond James issued a "Strong Buy" rating on 10/24/2025
Jefferies issued a "Buy" rating on 10/10/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $VLO, check out Quiver Quantitative's $VLO forecast page.

$VLO Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $VLO recently. We have seen 13 analysts offer price targets for $VLO in the last 6 months, with a median target of $194.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Vikram Bagri from Citigroup set a target price of $212.0 on 02/09/2026
Ryan Todd from Piper Sandler set a target price of $220.0 on 01/30/2026
Joe Laetsch from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $182.0 on 01/30/2026
Zach Parham from JP Morgan set a target price of $200.0 on 01/08/2026
Nitin Kumar from Mizuho set a target price of $192.0 on 12/12/2025
Jean Ann Salisbury from B of A Securities set a target price of $195.0 on 12/11/2025
Theresa Chen from Barclays set a target price of $184.0 on 11/17/2025

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.